Bitcoin Attempts Breakout as Bulls Regain Momentum on Daily Chart

After days of range-bound price action and a previously confirmed bearish breakdown on lower timeframes, Bitcoin is now showing fresh signs of strength. The daily chart suggests a potential structural reversal, challenging the bearish narrative outlined in our previous analysis.

📊 Previous Scenario Recap

In our last breakdown on the 4H chart, Bitcoin had lost the ascending trendline support near $106.7K, triggering a local bearish phase. The price fell below multiple exponential moving averages, particularly the EMA 50 and EMA 200 on the 4H, suggesting momentum had shifted toward the downside. Volume remained subdued, and sellers dominated as Bitcoin hovered around the $105K–$106K zone.

Our outlook emphasized a defensive stance with a bearish bias, highlighting the need for a reclaim above $107.2K to invalidate the bearish setup. Since then, the daily chart has provided bulls a glimmer of hope, with price reclaiming that zone convincingly.

🔍 Key Levels and Current Structure

Zooming out to the daily timeframe, Bitcoin has just printed a powerful bullish candle, closing firmly above all short-term moving averages and breaking out of a multi-week consolidation range. The structure now resembles a potential breakout from a rectangular consolidation (accumulation phase) between $104K and $109K.

This breakout aligns with a clear test of the high-volume node from the visible range volume profile (VRVP) on the right. With today’s close at $109.5K, BTC has moved into a low-volume area — which often acts as a runway for volatile moves.

📊 Key Resistance and Support Levels

🔴 Resistance:

• $110,200 – Local swing high (horizontal)
• $113,800 – Previous monthly high
• $117,600 – Upper bound of macro resistance channel

🟢 Support:

• $107,200 – Breakout level, now flipped to support
• $105,400 – EMA cluster zone
• $100,600 – Bottom of the recent range and psychological level

This clean structure gives BTC room to move higher, provided it sustains above $107K on daily closing basis. A failure to hold that breakout would reintroduce risk of a false breakout trap.

📈 Moving Averages

• EMA 9 / EMA 12: Bullish cross confirmed, angle is upward and price is above both.
• EMA 50: Reclaimed after acting as resistance for multiple weeks.
• EMA 200: Still far below current price (~$95K), providing a long-term cushion.
• SMA 300: Trending higher, still far from the current structure (~$90K).

This alignment of moving averages supports the beginning of a bullish momentum phase on the daily chart, further strengthened by the clean break from range and increased volume.

🚀 Bullish Scenario

If momentum continues, Bitcoin could be on the verge of retesting and potentially breaking its yearly highs. The price is now positioned in a thin liquidity zone, where resistance is weaker until $113K–$117K. The setup also comes as many macro indicators, like inflation and Fed commentary, turn less hostile toward risk assets.

🎯 Long Entry: Retest and confirmation of support near $107.2K
📍 Stop-loss: Below $104.8K
🎯 Targets:

• $113,800
• $117,600
• $120,000 (psychological round level)

📊 Probability: 65% — Structure, breakout momentum, and moving averages alignment favor the upside.

📉 Bearish Scenario

A failed breakout (daily close below $107K) would invalidate this structure and turn it into a bull trap. In that case, BTC would likely return to the mid-range area around $105K, with increased risk of testing the lower range boundary at $100.6K.

🔻 Short Entry: Rejection with high volume below $107K
📍 Stop-loss: Above $110.2K
🔻 Targets:

• $105,400
• $100,600

📊 Probability: 35% — Current trend suggests bearish setups are weakening, but not entirely invalid.

📌 Best Strategy: Cautious Bullish Bias with Eyes on Confirmation

The shift from lower-timeframe bearish pressure to daily breakout structure invites cautious optimism. The confluence of breakout momentum, rising EMAs, and volume profile dynamics suggest that BTC is gearing up for a more expansive move — potentially even setting the stage for a full breakout of the $120K macro barrier.

However, confirmation is essential. As always in crypto, breakout trades without volume confirmation or invalidation of former resistances can quickly turn into painful traps. If BTC holds $107K for the next 2–3 daily closes, the outlook will become increasingly bullish.

🧐 What to Watch in the Coming Days

📈 Price action around $107K–$110K — consolidation or continuation
💰 Volume strength — a true breakout needs follow-through
📊 Behavior of altcoins — capital rotation often follows BTC breakouts
🔄 Macro conditions — any shock to risk sentiment can invalidate patterns quickly

While this breakout is encouraging, it remains early to call for all-time highs or parabolic moves. Patience, risk management, and confirmation are key — as always.

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Source of the Chart: TradingView

📜 Disclaimer

This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading and investing in cryptocurrencies involve a high level of risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The information provided here reflects market conditions at the time of writing and may change without notice. Neither the author nor this platform is responsible for any financial losses incurred as a result of trading decisions based on this analysis.