Bitcoin is entering one of the most important phases of the current cycle. While much of the market remains focused on short term volatility, the weekly chart offers a broader perspective on where we may stand within the larger structure that began after the 2024 halving.
As always, weekly analysis is not designed for operational trading decisions. It is a framework for understanding market positioning, trend evolution, capital flows, and the potential path of the cycle over the coming months.
Over the last several weeks, Bitcoin has lost critical momentum. The strong impulsive phase that pushed price toward the six figure area has clearly weakened, and the market is now showing several characteristics typically associated with a late cycle correction rather than a simple pullback.
This does not automatically mean that a bear market has started. However, it does suggest that the market may require significantly more time before establishing a sustainable bottom capable of supporting a new expansion phase.
One of the most important aspects visible on the chart is the rejection from the upper trendline that has defined the broader cycle structure. Price attempted to continue higher but failed to maintain momentum, creating a sharp reversal that has now pushed Bitcoin back below several key moving averages.
The market is currently trading around $62,700, well below the EMA 12 and EMA 26, which are now acting as dynamic resistance rather than support.
Historically, when Bitcoin loses both short term and medium term weekly trend averages simultaneously, the market often enters a prolonged period of uncertainty rather than immediately recovering.
🔍 Key Levels and Current Structure
From a structural perspective, several levels deserve attention.
Major Resistance Zones:
- $68,850 (EMA 200 weekly)
- $73,750
- $78,480
- $81,470
The most important observation is that Bitcoin has fallen below the weekly EMA 200. While many traders focus primarily on daily averages, the weekly EMA 200 often acts as a major institutional reference point during larger cycle transitions.
Reclaiming this level would significantly improve market structure.
Major Support Zones:
- $60,000
- $50,300
- $40,000
- $35,800
The $60,000 area currently represents the first major support. However, the chart suggests that this level may not be strong enough to absorb continued selling pressure if macro conditions deteriorate further.
Below this area, the next significant support sits around $50,000.
This is also where many structural elements begin to converge:
- Previous breakout areas
- Historical liquidity concentrations
- Psychological round number
- Prior accumulation zones
For this reason, the $50,000 region increasingly appears as a realistic destination should current weakness continue.
The RSI is currently near 34, approaching oversold territory but not yet showing the type of extreme readings typically associated with major cycle bottoms.
Meanwhile, MACD remains negative and continues to signal bearish momentum despite some early signs of deceleration.
Importantly, neither indicator currently shows the type of strong bullish divergence often seen near significant market lows.
📈 What Makes the Current Situation Different?
One of the most interesting aspects of this cycle is the disconnect between institutional participation and price action.
During recent months, multiple institutional entities continued accumulating Bitcoin. Treasury companies expanded their reserves, ETF infrastructure remained active, and corporate adoption narratives continued to develop.
Under normal circumstances, such flows would be expected to support higher prices.
Instead, Bitcoin has struggled to sustain momentum.
This suggests that market structure may currently be dominated by leverage reduction rather than spot demand.
When excessive leverage builds throughout an expansion phase, markets often require a cleansing process. That process can be painful because liquidations frequently occur regardless of strong long term fundamentals.
The result is a market that can decline significantly even while the broader adoption story remains intact.
This dynamic appears increasingly relevant today.
🚀 Bullish Scenario
The optimistic scenario remains possible, although it has become less probable than it was earlier this year.
For bulls to regain control, Bitcoin would need to stabilize around current levels and defend the $60,000 region.
A successful defense could create a multi month consolidation phase similar to previous mid cycle corrections.
Under this scenario:
- $60,000 remains intact
- Selling pressure gradually weakens
- RSI stabilizes
- MACD begins turning positive
- Bitcoin reclaims the weekly EMA 200
If this occurs, the market could eventually recover toward:
- $68,850
- $73,750
- $78,480
Such a recovery would not necessarily signal a new bull market leg immediately. Instead, it would likely represent a prolonged rebuilding process.
Estimated probability: 35%
📉 Bearish Scenario
The bearish scenario currently appears more aligned with the chart structure.
The loss of multiple moving averages, weakening momentum, declining trend structure, and absence of clear bottoming signals all point toward the possibility of further downside.
Under this scenario:
- $60,000 fails
- Weekly selling pressure accelerates
- Leveraged positions continue unwinding
- Market sentiment deteriorates further
The first major target becomes the area around $50,000.
This is also the scenario that increasingly aligns with the broader interpretation we have discussed across recent Block2Learn analyses.
Rather than having already established a definitive bottom, Bitcoin may still be searching for its final capitulation phase.
If $50,000 is reached, the market could then spend several months in a broad lateral range.
A prolonged consolidation between roughly $50,000 and $65,000 would allow excess speculation to disappear while rebuilding a healthier market structure.
This process could extend through late summer and potentially into October or November before a more meaningful bottom is established.
Importantly, a move toward $50,000 would not necessarily invalidate the longer term cycle.
Bitcoin has repeatedly experienced corrections of 30% to 50% during broader bullish environments.
What matters is how price behaves after reaching those zones.
Estimated probability: 50%
⚖️ Alternative Scenario: Extended Sideways Market
There is also a third scenario that deserves consideration.
Markets do not always resolve through dramatic collapses.
Sometimes they simply move sideways long enough to frustrate both bulls and bears.
In this scenario:
- Bitcoin oscillates between $60,000 and $70,000
- Volatility gradually declines
- Momentum indicators flatten
- Capital rotates into other asset classes
Such behavior would delay the next directional move while allowing moving averages and valuation metrics to normalize.
Estimated probability: 15%
🎯 Cycle Perspective
Looking strictly at the weekly chart, the market does not yet display the characteristics typically associated with a completed bottom.
Major cycle lows often feature:
- Extreme fear
- Strong capitulation volume
- Deep oversold conditions
- Significant bullish divergences
- Structural support reclaim
At the moment, only some of those conditions are beginning to emerge.
For this reason, the idea that Bitcoin could eventually test the $50,000 area before establishing a more durable floor remains a reasonable macro hypothesis.
The coming months will likely be less about explosive upside and more about discovering where genuine long term demand is willing to absorb supply.
If that process ultimately concludes during the October to November period, it would fit the timeline of a market moving through a necessary rebalancing phase following the excesses of the previous advance.
The most important takeaway is that this chart should not be interpreted through a short term trading lens. Weekly structures evolve slowly. What matters is not predicting the exact low but understanding where risk and opportunity may eventually begin to realign.
The current structure suggests that patience remains more valuable than conviction.
As the market searches for equilibrium, the focus should remain on identifying whether Bitcoin is merely correcting within a larger cycle or building the foundations for the next major phase of the market.
The distinction between those two outcomes will likely define the remainder of 2026.
Source of the Chart: TradingView
📜 Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading and investing in cryptocurrencies involve a high level of risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The information provided here reflects market conditions at the time of writing and may change without notice. Neither the author nor this platform is responsible for any financial losses incurred as a result of trading decisions based on this analysis.
This article is provided solely for informational and educational purposes and does not constitute financial or investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument or digital asset. See our Financial Disclaimer.
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