NEAR Protocol is trading at a technically important point on the daily chart. After the violent expansion that carried the price from approximately $1.50 toward the $2.80 region, the market entered a long corrective phase, erased a significant part of that rally and eventually found support near the daily 200 EMA.

The current price, around $1.91, is positioned between two opposing technical forces.

Below the market, the 200 EMA near $1.81 continues to provide structural support. Above the market, the 12 EMA, the 26 EMA and a significant volume-profile resistance area are concentrated between approximately $1.94 and $1.97.

This creates a compressed structure in which neither buyers nor sellers have yet achieved a decisive victory.

The short-term picture remains weak because NEAR is trading below the fast daily moving averages. However, the broader structure has not completely deteriorated because price is still holding above the 200 EMA and above the important support area between $1.81 and $1.83.

The next directional move will probably depend on which side of this range is broken first.

A confirmed recovery above $1.96 would improve the short-term structure, but it would not immediately complete a bullish reversal. Buyers would still need to reclaim the psychological $2.00 level and the stronger resistance around $2.04–$2.05.

On the opposite side, a daily close below the 200 EMA would represent a much more important bearish signal. It would remove the main technical support beneath the current consolidation and could expose NEAR to a deeper retracement toward $1.70, $1.60 and potentially the May accumulation region.

At the moment, the most probable scenario is not an immediate vertical breakout. The chart instead suggests continued compression, repeated liquidity tests and a possible return toward the lower part of the range before the market establishes a more sustainable direction.

🔍 Market Overview and Current Daily Structure

The broader daily structure can be divided into three different phases.

The first phase was the accumulation and gradual recovery observed between April and the first part of May. During this period, NEAR traded primarily between approximately $1.20 and $1.50. Price action was relatively controlled, volatility remained moderate and the moving averages were still positioned close to the market.

The second phase was the explosive bullish expansion that began in May. NEAR broke above the previous consolidation, crossed the daily moving averages and accelerated rapidly toward $2.80.

That move was powerful, but it was also extremely fast. The market did not build enough intermediate support during the ascent. When a rally develops almost vertically, the absence of a stable structure underneath the price often increases the probability of a violent correction.

This is exactly what happened.

After reaching the $2.70–$2.80 region, buyers were unable to maintain momentum. Sellers entered aggressively, volatility expanded and the price began to retrace. The initial decline did not immediately destroy the bullish structure, but the subsequent rebounds produced weaker follow-through.

NEAR repeatedly failed to recover its previous highs. The market started forming lower highs while gradually returning toward the breakout area.

The third phase is the current consolidation above the 200 EMA.

Since the end of June, NEAR has spent most of its time between approximately $1.81 and $2.00. The price has tested both sides of this range without producing a confirmed breakout.

This consolidation is important because it is taking place directly above a long-term dynamic support. The market is therefore deciding whether the May rally was the beginning of a broader recovery or simply an unsustainable expansion inside a still-fragile macro structure.

The present daily candles show limited conviction. Buyers have defended the lower part of the range, but they have not generated enough volume to reclaim the short-term moving averages. Sellers have rejected the upper part of the range, but they have not yet broken the 200 EMA.

This balance explains why the market currently appears compressed.

The chart does not support an aggressively bullish interpretation while NEAR remains below $1.96. At the same time, it would be premature to describe the broader structure as fully bearish while price remains above $1.81.

The market is trapped between short-term weakness and long-term support.

📌 Key Support Levels

The first immediate support is located around $1.90.

This is not the strongest technical level on the chart, but it is psychologically relevant because price is currently trading close to it. A temporary break below $1.90 would not automatically confirm a bearish continuation. However, repeated daily closes below this area would demonstrate that buyers are gradually losing control of the current equilibrium.

The next important support is located around $1.83.

This level has repeatedly attracted demand during the recent consolidation. It also corresponds to the lower boundary of the short-term range and is positioned slightly above the daily 200 EMA.

The $1.83 area should therefore be interpreted as the first significant defensive zone for buyers. A return to this level could generate another reaction, particularly if the market produces a long lower wick, a bullish engulfing candle or a clear increase in buying volume.

The strongest support on the current chart is the daily 200 EMA, located near $1.81.

The 200 EMA is important because it separates the current consolidation from a potentially deeper structural breakdown. As long as NEAR remains above this moving average, buyers can still argue that the market is building a base after the correction.

A confirmed daily close below $1.81 would change that interpretation.

Such a breakdown would indicate that the current range has failed and that the market is no longer able to defend its primary dynamic support. In that case, the probability of an extension toward lower liquidity zones would increase substantially.

Below the 200 EMA, the next potential support can be identified around $1.70–$1.72.

This zone does not appear as a single precise horizontal line on the chart, but it represents an intermediate structural area between the current consolidation and the previous May breakout base.

If selling pressure accelerates, $1.70 may produce a temporary reaction. However, it should not be considered as strong as the current $1.81–$1.83 support cluster.

The next major support is located around $1.58–$1.62.

This region corresponds to the area from which the May expansion accelerated. It may therefore contain untested demand and historical liquidity.

A return toward $1.60 would represent a major deterioration from the present price, but it could also attract longer-term buyers if the broader market remains stable.

The final important downside area is approximately $1.45–$1.50.

This was the previous consolidation and breakout zone. A return to this level would effectively erase the entire impulsive phase of the May rally and confirm that the market had failed to transform the breakout into a sustainable trend.

📌 Key Resistance Levels

The first resistance is located between approximately $1.94 and $1.97.

This is the most immediate obstacle for NEAR and the most important level to monitor in the coming sessions.

The 12 EMA is currently positioned near $1.95, while the 26 EMA is near $1.96. The volume profile also shows significant activity in this area, which means that several technical factors are concentrated inside a narrow price range.

This confluence makes the $1.94–$1.97 zone stronger than a normal short-term resistance.

A brief intraday move above it would not be enough to confirm a breakout. NEAR would ideally need to produce a daily close above the entire cluster and then hold the area as support during a subsequent retest.

The next resistance is approximately $2.00.

This is primarily a psychological level, but it is also positioned near the upper boundary of the recent range. The market has repeatedly struggled to develop sustained momentum above this region.

A recovery of $2.00 would improve sentiment, but the price would still face another important resistance almost immediately.

That stronger barrier is located around $2.04–$2.05.

The chart shows a relevant horizontal level near $2.046. This area previously acted as support and resistance and is also surrounded by considerable historical volume.

A daily close above $2.05 would be more significant than a simple recovery above the fast EMAs. It would indicate that buyers have escaped the current compression and reclaimed the first major supply zone.

Above $2.05, the next important target is approximately $2.19–$2.22.

The volume profile highlights strong participation around this region. The market may therefore encounter substantial selling pressure as traders who previously accumulated or became trapped near this level attempt to exit.

The $2.19–$2.22 area should be considered the first major bullish objective after a confirmed breakout from the current range.

The next resistance is approximately $2.50–$2.53.

This region corresponds to a previous reaction area during the May and June volatility. It is not likely to become relevant immediately unless NEAR first reclaims $2.22 with strong volume.

The final major resistance visible on the chart is located around $2.73–$2.80.

This is the previous local high and the origin of the broader correction. A return to this zone would represent a complete recovery of the current bearish leg.

However, NEAR is still far from confirming such a scenario. The market must first recover the fast moving averages, break $2.05, reclaim $2.22 and build a sequence of higher lows.

📈 Moving Averages Analysis

The daily moving averages currently provide a clear representation of the conflict between short-term pressure and longer-term support.

The 12 EMA is positioned around $1.95.

The 26 EMA is positioned around $1.96.

The daily close near $1.91 remains below both moving averages.

This configuration indicates that short-term momentum is still controlled by sellers. The market has attempted to recover the two EMAs, but the latest rejection shows that buyers have not yet generated enough strength to transform them into support.

The relationship between the 12 EMA and the 26 EMA is also important.

The 12 EMA remains slightly below the 26 EMA, which maintains a short-term bearish alignment. The distance between them is relatively limited, however, suggesting that momentum is not strongly directional.

This is consistent with a compressed market rather than an aggressive bearish trend.

A bullish crossover between the 12 EMA and the 26 EMA would improve the short-term picture, but the crossover alone would not be sufficient. Price would also need to close above both averages and remain above them.

Without price confirmation, moving-average crossovers inside a range can produce false signals.

The daily 200 EMA is positioned around $1.81.

Unlike the fast moving averages, the 200 EMA is currently acting as support. Price tested this area during the June decline and generated a reaction.

The fact that NEAR remains above the 200 EMA is the strongest argument against an immediately bearish structural conclusion.

However, the distance between the current price and the 200 EMA is small. This means the market does not have a large technical buffer.

A single high-volatility daily candle could push NEAR below the moving average and force the market to test the lower support zones.

For a convincing bullish recovery, NEAR would ideally need to establish the following sequence:

First, recover the 12 and 26 EMAs.

Second, close above $1.96.

Third, reclaim the $2.00–$2.05 resistance area.

Fourth, retest the recovered zone without closing back below it.

Finally, produce a higher high above $2.22.

Until this sequence begins to develop, the moving averages continue to describe a market that is stable above long-term support but weak in the short term.

📊 Volume Profile and Market Liquidity

The visible-range volume profile provides essential information about the current structure.

A considerable amount of volume has been exchanged between approximately $1.85 and $2.05. This explains why price continues to rotate inside this region.

High-volume areas often function as zones of equilibrium. Buyers and sellers previously accepted these prices, which means the market may spend more time there until a new imbalance appears.

The current price near $1.91 is located inside this area of acceptance.

This reduces the probability of a clean directional movement without an increase in volume. When the market trades inside a high-volume node, price frequently moves back and forth rather than trending immediately.

The profile also shows substantial volume near $2.19–$2.22.

This is likely to become an important target and resistance if NEAR breaks above the current consolidation. Buyers who enter near $1.95 or $2.05 may begin taking profits as price approaches the larger volume node.

Above that region, another concentration appears around approximately $2.45–$2.60. This area would only become relevant in a stronger bullish continuation.

On the downside, the profile becomes thinner below the 200 EMA.

This is an important risk.

A thin-volume area means the market has previously exchanged less activity there. If support breaks, price may move more rapidly through these zones because there are fewer historical transactions available to slow the movement.

Therefore, a breakdown below $1.81 could produce faster downside acceleration than many traders expect.

The recent daily volume bars also show a general reduction in participation compared with the explosive May and early June period.

Declining volume during consolidation is normal, but it also means that the latest moves have limited confirmation.

The recent attempts to recover the fast EMAs did not attract enough volume to establish a sustainable breakout. Similarly, sellers have not yet generated the expansion required to break the 200 EMA.

The market is waiting for new participation.

A valid breakout should ideally be accompanied by daily volume clearly above the recent average. Without that increase, any movement above $2.00 or below $1.81 would remain vulnerable to a false breakout.

🕯️ Candlestick Structure and Price Action

The recent candlestick structure shows repeated hesitation near the fast moving averages.

NEAR recovered from the $1.81–$1.83 area and attempted to build a short-term sequence of higher lows. However, each move toward approximately $1.96–$2.00 attracted selling pressure.

The latest rejection is particularly relevant because it occurred directly inside the 12 EMA and 26 EMA cluster.

This indicates that sellers are actively defending the first resistance zone.

At the same time, the bearish candles have not yet expanded strongly enough to confirm a breakdown. Price remains relatively close to the middle of the recent consolidation.

This creates an asymmetrical situation.

The current rejection favors a short-term move toward support, but the broader downside scenario requires confirmation below $1.81.

In practical terms, the daily chart is producing lower highs below resistance while maintaining similar lows above the 200 EMA.

This resembles a tightening structure.

Compression of this kind often precedes a volatility expansion. However, the chart alone cannot determine the direction before one of the boundaries is broken.

The upper boundary is approximately $1.96–$2.05.

The lower boundary is approximately $1.81–$1.83.

Inside this range, price action is likely to remain noisy and vulnerable to false signals.

📉 MACD Analysis

The daily MACD is showing an early but still weak improvement.

The MACD line has moved above the signal line, and the histogram has turned slightly positive. This suggests that bearish momentum has decreased and that buyers have generated a limited recovery.

However, both MACD lines remain below the zero line.

This distinction is important.

A bullish crossover below zero can mark the beginning of a reversal, but it can also occur during a temporary relief rally inside a broader corrective phase.

The signal becomes more reliable when the MACD continues rising, crosses above zero and is supported by a price breakout.

At the moment, that confirmation is missing.

The positive histogram is also relatively small. Momentum is improving, but it is not expanding aggressively.

The recent price rejection below the fast EMAs could cause the histogram to contract again. If the MACD line turns down before reaching zero, it would reinforce the probability of another test of the $1.83–$1.81 support area.

On the opposite side, if NEAR holds above $1.90 and the MACD continues to strengthen, buyers may attempt another breakout above $1.96.

Therefore, the MACD should currently be interpreted as neutral-to-slightly constructive rather than decisively bullish.

🌊 VMC Cipher and Momentum Conditions

The VMC Cipher oscillator also reflects a market without strong directional conviction.

Momentum recovered from oversold conditions during the previous test of the 200 EMA, but the latest oscillator movement has begun to weaken near the neutral region.

The appearance of a recent bearish signal near the current price rejection suggests that short-term upside momentum is losing strength.

This does not automatically predict a major decline. Signals generated near the middle of an oscillator range are generally less powerful than signals produced from extreme overbought or oversold conditions.

Nevertheless, the oscillator supports the idea that NEAR may need to retest lower liquidity before attempting another sustained breakout.

For the bullish scenario, traders should look for the oscillator to turn upward again while price remains above $1.81. A higher low in momentum combined with a higher low in price would create a more constructive divergence.

For the bearish scenario, a deeper decline in the oscillator accompanied by a daily close below the 200 EMA would confirm that the current consolidation is resolving downward.

At present, momentum conditions do not justify chasing either direction.

🚀 Bullish Scenario

The bullish scenario begins with the assumption that the $1.81–$1.83 support cluster continues to hold.

NEAR may first retest this region before attempting another recovery. A temporary move toward support would not invalidate the bullish structure as long as buyers defend the 200 EMA on a daily closing basis.

The first bullish signal would be a strong reaction from the support zone.

This could appear as a long lower wick, a bullish engulfing candle, a morning-star pattern or a series of daily candles showing progressively higher lows.

The second signal would be a recovery above the 12 EMA and 26 EMA cluster between $1.94 and $1.97.

A daily close above this area would demonstrate that short-term momentum is shifting back toward buyers.

The third and more important confirmation would be a close above $2.04–$2.05.

This level represents the real breakout threshold. Above $2.05, NEAR would leave the recent range and enter a lower-volume area with room to move toward the next major node.

The first bullish target would be $2.19–$2.22.

This region is likely to produce a reaction because it contains a substantial amount of historical volume. Traders should expect volatility and potential profit-taking near this zone.

If NEAR closes above $2.22 and successfully retests it as support, the next target would be approximately $2.50–$2.53.

A continuation above $2.53 would expose the previous high between $2.73 and $2.80.

The bullish scenario would become significantly stronger if the breakout is supported by expanding volume, a MACD move above zero and a bullish alignment between the 12 EMA and the 26 EMA.

Without these confirmations, a move above $2.00 could still become another liquidity sweep followed by rejection.

Potential Confirmed Long Setup

A conservative long entry could be considered only after a daily close above approximately $2.05 and a successful retest of the $1.96–$2.05 region.

Potential entry zone: $1.99–$2.06 after confirmation.

Potential stop-loss: below $1.90 for a tighter setup, or below $1.81 for a wider structural setup.

First target: $2.19–$2.22.

Second target: $2.50–$2.53.

Third target: $2.73–$2.80.

The tighter stop would provide a better risk-to-reward ratio but would also be more vulnerable to range volatility. The wider stop below the 200 EMA would better respect the daily structure, but position size would need to be reduced accordingly.

Potential Aggressive Support Long

An aggressive long could be considered near $1.83–$1.81 only if the market produces a visible reversal candle and confirms that the 200 EMA is still being defended.

Potential entry zone: $1.82–$1.85.

Potential stop-loss: below approximately $1.76–$1.78.

First target: $1.94–$1.97.

Second target: $2.04–$2.05.

Third target: $2.19–$2.22.

This would be a range-based trade rather than a confirmed trend-following position. It carries higher execution risk because the entry would occur before a breakout.

The estimated probability of a confirmed bullish expansion during the next phase is approximately 30%.

This probability would increase substantially after a daily close above $2.05 with strong volume.

📉 Bearish Scenario

The bearish scenario begins with continued rejection below the $1.94–$1.97 resistance cluster.

If NEAR remains below the fast EMAs, sellers may gradually push price back toward $1.83 and the daily 200 EMA.

A test of the support zone alone would not confirm a bearish breakdown. The decisive signal would be a daily close below approximately $1.81.

Such a close would indicate that the market has lost its principal dynamic support and that the recent consolidation has resolved downward.

After the breakdown, the ideal bearish confirmation would be an unsuccessful retest of $1.81–$1.83 from below.

If price returns to this area and is rejected, the previous support would become resistance. That would create a clearer continuation setup.

The first downside target would be approximately $1.70–$1.72.

This region could generate a temporary bounce, but the volume profile suggests that price may move relatively quickly once it leaves the current high-volume zone.

The second bearish target would be approximately $1.58–$1.62.

This is a more important historical area and could attract stronger demand.

The final major downside target would be approximately $1.45–$1.50.

A decline toward this region would represent a full retracement of the May impulsive move and confirm that the previous breakout had failed.

The bearish scenario would gain additional confirmation if daily volume expands during the breakdown, the MACD produces a bearish crossover below zero and the momentum oscillator creates a new lower low.

Potential Confirmed Short Setup

A conservative short entry could be evaluated after a daily close below $1.81 and a failed retest of the $1.81–$1.85 area.

Potential entry zone: $1.79–$1.83 after confirmation.

Potential stop-loss: above $1.90–$1.93.

First target: $1.70–$1.72.

Second target: $1.58–$1.62.

Third target: $1.45–$1.50.

This setup would be invalidated if NEAR quickly reclaims the 200 EMA and closes back above $1.90.

Potential Aggressive Resistance Short

An aggressive short could be considered if NEAR returns to the $1.96–$2.05 region and produces another clear rejection.

Potential entry zone: $1.96–$2.04.

Potential stop-loss: above approximately $2.10–$2.12.

First target: $1.90.

Second target: $1.83–$1.81.

Third target: $1.70–$1.72 if the 200 EMA breaks.

This would remain a range trade unless the lower boundary is broken. Profits should therefore be managed more actively near the 200 EMA because buyers have already defended this level.

The estimated probability of a confirmed bearish breakdown is approximately 25%.

This probability would increase significantly after a daily close below $1.81 followed by a failed recovery.

↔️ Base Scenario: Continued Compression

The most probable immediate scenario is continued consolidation between the 200 EMA and the fast moving-average resistance cluster.

The estimated probability of this scenario is approximately 45%.

NEAR may continue oscillating between roughly $1.81 and $2.00 while volume contracts and the moving averages flatten.

Inside this range, the market may repeatedly produce brief breakouts that fail to generate continuation.

A move above $1.96 could attract breakout buyers before reversing below $1.90. Similarly, a temporary wick below $1.81 could trigger stop-losses before price returns inside the range.

This is why closing confirmation is particularly important.

The current volume profile supports the consolidation scenario because price is trading inside a high-volume acceptance zone. The market has no immediate reason to leave this area until a meaningful imbalance between buyers and sellers develops.

The compression may continue for several daily candles.

During this process, the 200 EMA may gradually rise while the 12 and 26 EMAs move lower. The distance between support and resistance would then become even narrower.

Eventually, the market will be forced to resolve the compression.

The longer NEAR remains inside the range, the stronger the eventual expansion could become.

However, duration alone does not determine direction.

🧭 Our Technical View

Our current view is neutral in the broader structure but slightly bearish in the short term.

The short-term bearish bias is based on four elements.

First, price remains below the 12 EMA and 26 EMA.

Second, the latest recovery attempt was rejected inside the $1.94–$1.97 resistance cluster.

Third, momentum indicators are not showing enough expansion to support a sustainable bullish breakout.

Fourth, volume continues to decline, demonstrating limited participation from buyers.

Despite these weaknesses, we do not consider the daily structure decisively bearish because NEAR remains above the 200 EMA.

The $1.81–$1.83 region is therefore the central point of the analysis.

Our most probable path is an additional test of the lower range, potentially toward $1.83 or the 200 EMA, followed by a new attempt to stabilize.

If buyers defend this region again and the daily MACD continues improving, NEAR could make another attempt to reclaim $1.96 and $2.05.

However, repeated tests weaken support.

Each return to the 200 EMA consumes part of the available demand. If buyers are forced to defend the same level too many times without producing a higher high, the probability of a breakdown gradually increases.

For this reason, the next reaction from $1.81–$1.83 will be more important than the previous one.

A strong reaction would preserve the range and maintain the possibility of a bullish breakout.

A weak reaction followed by another lower high would indicate that sellers are progressively gaining control.

The chart will become structurally bullish only above $2.05, with stronger confirmation above $2.22.

It will become structurally bearish below $1.81, with stronger confirmation below $1.70.

Between these levels, NEAR remains in a decision zone.

📌 Best Strategy: Wait for Confirmation

The current market position does not offer an ideal risk-to-reward ratio for a new directional entry.

At approximately $1.91, NEAR is positioned between support and resistance.

Buying at the current price means entering below the 12 and 26 EMAs and directly under the $1.96–$2.05 resistance area.

Shorting at the current price means entering relatively close to the daily 200 EMA, where buyers have already demonstrated an ability to defend the market.

Both directions therefore face immediate technical obstacles.

The cleaner strategy is to wait for price to approach one of the boundaries.

A reaction from $1.81–$1.83 could create a range-based long opportunity.

A confirmed breakout and retest above $2.05 could create a trend-following long opportunity.

A rejection from $1.96–$2.05 could create a range-based short opportunity.

A confirmed breakdown and failed retest below $1.81 could create a trend-following short opportunity.

Waiting reduces the risk of opening a position in the middle of the range, where the market can move unpredictably in both directions.

Confirmation is particularly important because the daily chart is compressed and volume remains limited.

👀 What to Watch in the Coming Days

The first element to monitor is the daily close relative to $1.90.

Continued closes below this psychological area would increase the probability of a return toward the 200 EMA.

The second element is the reaction between $1.83 and $1.81.

A strong bullish candle from this region would confirm that buyers are still active. A weak bounce would suggest that support is deteriorating.

The third element is the $1.94–$1.97 moving-average cluster.

NEAR must reclaim this zone to improve the short-term structure.

The fourth element is the $2.04–$2.05 breakout threshold.

A daily close above this resistance, particularly with increased volume, would be the first convincing evidence that the consolidation is resolving upward.

The fifth element is daily volume.

A breakout without volume should be treated cautiously. A meaningful directional move should ideally be supported by participation significantly above the recent average.

The sixth element is the MACD.

A continuation toward the zero line would favor buyers. A new bearish crossover below zero would increase the probability of another support test.

The final element is the relationship between the 12 EMA and the 26 EMA.

A bullish crossover combined with price acceptance above both averages would strengthen the recovery scenario. Continued bearish alignment would maintain pressure on the support zone.

Final Market Perspective

NEAR Protocol is approaching a decisive phase on the daily chart.

The market has completed a major correction from the $2.80 region and is now consolidating directly above the 200 EMA. This moving average remains the primary structural support and the central dividing line between stabilization and a deeper bearish continuation.

Short-term momentum continues to favor sellers because price remains below the 12 and 26 EMAs. The latest rejection near $1.96 confirms that the resistance cluster is still active.

However, sellers have not yet achieved the breakdown required to invalidate the broader recovery structure.

The most likely immediate development is continued compression or another test of the $1.83–$1.81 support area.

A successful defense could keep NEAR inside the range and prepare another attempt toward $1.96 and $2.05.

A daily close below the 200 EMA would instead expose the market to $1.70, $1.60 and potentially $1.50.

The bullish path requires a confirmed recovery above $2.05, followed by a move toward $2.19–$2.22. Only above this region would the daily structure begin to show a more credible sequence of higher highs and higher lows.

Until one of the two boundaries is broken, patience remains more valuable than prediction.

The market is not currently offering a clean directional advantage. The next confirmed daily breakout is likely to define NEAR’s bias for the following days and potentially for the next several weeks.

Source of the Chart: TradingView

📜 Disclaimer

This analysis is provided exclusively for educational and informational purposes. It does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, trading advice or a recommendation to buy or sell NEAR Protocol or any other financial asset. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and involve substantial risk. Technical levels, scenarios and probabilities can change rapidly as new market information emerges. Every trader and investor should conduct independent research, evaluate personal risk tolerance and use appropriate position sizing and risk-management strategies before making any financial decision.