After a strong rally in late 2024, Bitcoin has lost its momentum in early 2025—shedding 23% from its peak at $109,000 to trade near $84,000. Now, a key metric is raising red flags. According to CryptoQuant, the Bitcoin Bull Score Index (BBSI) has dropped to 20, its lowest level since January 2023, signaling what might be the beginning of a broader bearish trend rather than just a short-term correction.
The BBSI, which ranges from 0 to 100, tracks multiple bullish indicators such as network activity, demand, and liquidity. A low score reflects declining investor confidence and market participation, and the current reading of 20 resembles the bearish environment seen during the 2022–2023 consolidation.
The fall in the index coincides with weakening on-chain momentum. According to CryptoQuant’s weekly report, most indicators have turned bearish since mid-February—with the exception of stablecoin liquidity, which remains relatively resilient.
Short-term holders (STHs), those who bought Bitcoin within the last six months, are under the most pressure. Glassnode data shows that STHs have realized over $7 billion in losses over the past 30 days, marking the largest sustained loss for this group in the current cycle. Still, it remains below the capitulation levels seen during the 2021–2022 correction, where realized losses exceeded $19 billion.
Despite this context, Coinbase analysts expressed a more cautious tone. While some analysts interpret the recent weakness as a healthy reset, Coinbase pointed to increasing macro headwinds as a reason for concern. Specifically, upcoming U.S. tariffs expected in early April and Q1 earnings reports may further dampen investor sentiment—especially if forward guidance from major companies signals economic uncertainty.
In short, while on-chain data shows signs of stress among short-term holders, and the bull score index paints a weak momentum picture, macroeconomic variables could play a decisive role in Bitcoin’s next move. The convergence of technical weakness and external uncertainty could either amplify downside pressure or serve as the final shakeout before the next leg up.
As always in crypto markets, watching both on-chain dynamics and macroeconomic shifts will be key to navigating what lies ahead.
This article is provided solely for informational and educational purposes and does not constitute financial or investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument or digital asset. See our Financial Disclaimer.
This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by the Editorial Team. For more information, see our Terms of Service.
