Since the beginning of 2024, Kaspa (KAS) has faced relentless selling pressure, failing to reclaim key resistance zones and forming a prolonged bearish structure. Although recent price action shows short-term attempts to stabilize, the broader trend continues to signal caution for investors.

Signs of structural weakness on the weekly chart

Looking at the weekly chart, Kaspa had its last major bullish moment in December 2023, when it briefly surged above the local highs of the previous August and September. At the time, this breakout was perceived as a possible trend reversal. However, the rally was short-lived. Within a week, the price reversed sharply, invalidating the breakout and exposing it as a classic liquidity grab.

From that point on, KAS entered a steep correction, losing over 70% of its value and bottoming out around $0.052 in March 2025. While Bitcoin’s rally from $76K to $111K provided tailwinds for the broader market, Kaspa failed to ride the momentum, bouncing only weakly before getting rejected again near the $0.12 region.

This zone, which acts as a bearish order block formed in early January, has now served as a strong barrier to any bullish advancement. Repeated failures to break this level indicate that the selling interest remains strong, with no clear sign of accumulation.

Momentum and volume trends remain negative

The weekly RSI (Relative Strength Index) continues to trade below the neutral 50 level, indicating that bearish momentum dominates. Notably, the indicator has failed to cross above this threshold for months, reflecting a persistent lack of buyer strength.

Even more concerning is the steady decline of the OBV (On-Balance Volume) since early 2024. This suggests that the overall trading volume is weighted heavily toward selling. A declining OBV, especially on longer timeframes, is often a clear warning sign of sustained distribution and lack of interest from large buyers or institutions.

Daily chart hints at temporary support but little conviction

Zooming in on the daily timeframe, a temporary range appears to have formed between $0.06 and $0.117. This range has defined Kaspa’s trading behavior over the past few weeks, with the midpoint near $0.088 acting as a magnetic level.

Recently, price action bounced from the range lows near $0.06, offering some hope of a short-term recovery. However, the bounce remains weak and lacks confirmation from volume or momentum indicators.

The OBV on the daily chart continues its downward trajectory, and the $0.08 mark is acting as a local supply zone. Without a sharp uptick in volume or a clear breakout above $0.088, the bounce appears likely to be a temporary retracement rather than the start of a true reversal.

Short-term traders vs long-term holders

For short-term traders, opportunities may arise in fading rallies—particularly near the $0.088 resistance level. A clean rejection from that zone could offer a favorable setup for short positions with tight risk management.

Long-term holders, however, are faced with a more challenging scenario. The prolonged distribution phase, consistent rejection at key levels, and weakening technical structure point to a continuation of the bearish trend unless significant bullish catalysts emerge.

The psychological pressure on holders is also increasing. Many early investors are now underwater, and any further decline could trigger a wave of capitulation, especially if Bitcoin or the broader market fails to provide strong bullish signals.

The bigger picture: what’s missing for Kaspa?

Kaspa’s struggles are not just technical. From a narrative standpoint, it lacks the momentum currently enjoyed by other Layer-1 competitors. While Ethereum, Solana, and even smaller chains have seen renewed attention thanks to ecosystem development or strong DeFi/NFT traction, Kaspa has remained relatively quiet.

Without new utility, partnerships, or on-chain activity to fuel investor confidence, the project risks fading into the background. In a competitive Layer-1 environment, even solid technology isn’t enough without strong community engagement and a compelling roadmap.

Looking ahead: key levels and potential scenarios

Investors and traders should monitor the following levels closely:

• Support zone: $0.06–$0.052
• Range midpoint/resistance: $0.088
• Major bearish order block: $0.126

A breakdown below $0.052 would confirm continuation of the long-term downtrend and open the door to new lows. On the other hand, reclaiming $0.088 with high volume could signal the start of a recovery, with potential upside toward $0.117 and eventually $0.126.

However, such a bullish scenario remains speculative unless accompanied by a fundamental shift in investor sentiment and volume dynamics.

Final thoughts

Kaspa’s price structure, momentum indicators, and volume data collectively paint a picture of a struggling asset caught in a persistent downtrend. While minor bounces can offer trading opportunities, the broader outlook remains fragile unless the project reclaims key resistance levels with conviction.

For now, caution is warranted. Until clear signs of strength return—both technically and fundamentally—KAS appears to be a risky bet for long-term investors seeking stability.