Bitcoin Technical Analysis: testing key supports while eyeing recovery

🔍 Key Levels and Current Structure

Bitcoin is currently trading around $109,200 – $109,300, showing signs of stabilization after a strong sell-off that pushed the price out of the consolidation range it had maintained through most of September. On the daily chart, the breakdown from the $112,000–$113,000 support area confirmed bearish momentum, driving BTC toward the lower end of the range. At the same time, the 4-hour chart reveals a phase of sideways accumulation with slight bullish divergence on momentum indicators, suggesting the market could be preparing for a short-term rebound.

The next 3–4 days will be decisive in determining whether Bitcoin can recover toward the $112,000–$113,000 zone or if sellers will extend control, dragging the price closer to $107,000 and eventually the psychological $105,000 mark. Looking at the 1–2 week horizon, BTC will either establish a base above $109,000 and attempt a recovery toward $115,000, or continue its decline toward the 200-day moving average near $106,200.

📊 Key Levels:

🔴 Resistance Levels:

• $111,800 – $112,300 (first resistance cluster, strong liquidity zone)
• $113,000 – $113,500 (major daily resistance)
• $115,500 (upper liquidity block, weekly resistance)

🟢 Support Levels:

• $109,000 (current pivot, being tested)
• $106,200 (200-day MA and historical support)
• $100,000 (psychological long-term level)

📈 Moving Averages:

• The 20-day EMA is sloping downward near $112,000, acting as dynamic resistance.
• The 50-day EMA is positioned at $113,500, reinforcing the key resistance band.
• The 200-day EMA sits at $106,200, a critical level that could act as last support before a broader breakdown.

📊 Market Liquidity:
The volume profile highlights a dense liquidity cluster between $111,800 and $113,500. Below current levels, liquidity thins until the $106,000–$107,000 zone, suggesting that if $109,000 fails, the path toward lower support could accelerate quickly.

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🚀 Bullish Scenario

For bulls to regain momentum, Bitcoin must hold above $109,000 in the next 3–4 days and attempt a push toward the $111,800–$112,300 resistance zone. A confirmed breakout above this range on the 4-hour chart would set the stage for a retest of $113,500, aligning with the 50-day EMA.

🎯 Long Entry: Above $111,800 with strong volume confirmation.
📍 Stop-loss: Below $109,000 to protect against renewed downside.
🎯 Targets: $113,500 initially, followed by $115,500 if momentum accelerates.
📊 Probability: Around 45% in the short term, as momentum indicators on the 4h chart (RSI and MACD) show early signs of recovery, though confirmation is still lacking.

If the breakout holds, the next 1–2 weeks could see BTC climbing toward $115,500, a level that coincides with a heavy liquidity block. This would represent the first meaningful attempt at recovery after the latest breakdown.

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📉 Bearish Scenario

If Bitcoin fails to maintain the $109,000 pivot, sellers will likely test the $107,000 region within the next 3–4 days. A break below that area opens the way to the 200-day EMA near $106,200, which will be a critical battleground for bulls.

🔻 Short Entry: Below $109,000 on strong bearish volume.
📍 Stop-loss: Above $111,800 to avoid being caught in a rebound.
🔻 Targets: $107,000 first, then $106,200. In case of high volatility, extension toward $105,000 is possible.
📊 Probability: Around 55% in the short term, as bearish pressure remains dominant on the daily timeframe and moving averages point downward.

On the 1–2 week horizon, a failure to defend $106,200 would shift the narrative into a deeper correction scenario, with potential tests of $102,500 and even the round $100,000 mark. This would likely trigger panic selling before a potential long-term accumulation phase.

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📌 Best Strategy: Wait for Confirmation

Given the mixed signals between the daily and 4-hour charts, the safest approach for traders is to wait for confirmation around the $109,000–$112,000 corridor. The outcome of this range test will determine whether Bitcoin can stage a recovery or continue its correction.

🧐 What to Watch in the Coming Days?
📈 A breakout above $111,800 with volume could spark a short-term rally to $113,500.
💰 Liquidity pockets on the downside suggest accelerated moves if $109,000 is lost.
🔄 Momentum divergence on the 4h chart hints at a possible rebound, but the daily trend remains bearish.

For swing traders, patience is essential: the next 3–4 days will set the tone for the following 1–2 weeks.

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📌 Source of the Chart: TradingView

📜 Disclaimer

This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading and investing in cryptocurrencies involve a high level of risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The information provided here reflects market conditions at the time of writing and may change without notice. Neither the author nor this platform is responsible for any financial losses incurred as a result of trading decisions based on this analysis.