🟠 Bitcoin Daily Chart Analysis – Bottom Formation and Recovery Test

After a dramatic weekend crash, Bitcoin appears to have found a temporary bottom near the $114,000 area, forming a rounded recovery pattern.
The market structure shows early signs of stabilization, supported by renewed capital inflows across the crypto ecosystem — as confirmed by Solana’s rebound and the $550 billion re-entering crypto markets in the last 48 hours.

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🔍 Key Levels and Current Structure

Bitcoin is trading near $115,400, consolidating after a deep retracement that wiped out excessive leverage.
The chart suggests a potential bullish reversal forming as price defends the 200-day EMA and climbs back toward the key confluence zone between $116,800 and $117,200.

📊 Key Levels:

🔴 Resistance Levels:

• $117,200 — Short-term barrier and EMA cluster resistance.
• $120,000 — Psychological and structural breakout level.
• $124,500 — Upper target aligned with high-volume node from September.

🟢 Support Levels:

• $114,000 — Local bottom formed during the crash.
• $112,200 — Secondary support, crucial for maintaining the new base.
• $108,000 — Strong long-term demand area (200 EMA zone).

📈 Moving Averages:

• EMA 9: $116,850
• EMA 12: $117,110
• EMA 26: $116,654
• EMA 50: $115,688
• EMA 200: $108,013
• SMA 300: trending upward, long-term support confirmation.

All short- and mid-term EMAs are now compressing tightly, suggesting a volatility squeeze that may precede a breakout.

📊 Market Liquidity:
The visible range profile shows thick buying interest between $112K–$115K, while selling pressure re-emerges around $117K–$120K.
Breaking through that upper cluster would likely trigger short covering and fuel a stronger upside continuation.

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🚀 Bullish Scenario

If the current bounce extends above $117,200, Bitcoin could confirm the start of a mid-term recovery phase.
The structure would then evolve into a higher-low formation, confirming buyers’ dominance after the weekend liquidation event.

🎯 Long Entry: $117,300 (confirmation above resistance)
📍 Stop-loss: $114,000 (below recent swing low)
🎯 Targets:

• Target 1: $120,000 (psychological barrier and short squeeze zone)
• Target 2: $124,500 (previous range high)
• Target 3: $128,000 (potential extension in strong momentum case)
  📊 Probability: 65% — contingent on daily close above $117K and positive momentum continuation across majors (SOL, ETH, BNB).

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📉 Bearish Scenario

Failure to break and close above $117K could expose Bitcoin to renewed weakness, especially if macro volatility returns with trade negotiations between the U.S. and China.

🔻 Short Entry: $113,500 (if breakdown below EMA cluster)
📍 Stop-loss: $116,800
🔻 Targets:

• Target 1: $112,200 (previous low)
• Target 2: $108,000 (major support at 200 EMA)
• Target 3: $106,000 (extreme retest of high-volume node)
  📊 Probability: 35% — bearish continuation remains possible if funding turns negative and risk sentiment fades.

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📌 Best Strategy: Wait for Confirmation

The technical picture favors a neutral-to-bullish stance.
While the bottom appears to be in place, confirmation requires a clean daily close above $117,000 and preferably follow-through toward $120K.

🧐 What to Watch in the Coming Days?
📈 Watch for a daily candle close above $117K with rising volume — it would validate the breakout.
💰 Monitor Bitcoin dominance and liquidity rotation into majors like Solana and Ethereum.
🔄 Stay alert for potential macro headlines from the Trump–Xi trade negotiations that could impact sentiment short term.

If momentum aligns with improving macro tone, the move toward $120K could signal the official end of the correction phase and mark the beginning of a new recovery leg into Q4 2025.

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Source of the Chart: TradingView

📜 Disclaimer

This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading and investing in cryptocurrencies involve a high level of risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The information provided here reflects market conditions at the time of writing and may change without notice. Neither the author nor this platform is responsible for any financial losses incurred as a result of trading decisions based on this analysis.