🔍 Key Levels and Current Structure
Solana has entered a critical weekly phase after a decisive breakdown from its multi week support zone. Following repeated rejections from the bearish trendline originating at the September high, SOL has now broken below several key exponential moving averages, signaling a deeper structural deterioration on the weekly timeframe.
As of the latest weekly close, SOL trades around $136.92, dropping nearly 16.8% from the previous weekly open. This severe pullback follows a failure to reclaim the $176–$183 resistance belt, an area that aligned with the EMA 50 and a heavy selling cluster on the visible range volume profile. The rejection from this confluence has pushed Solana into a broader corrective leg.
The weekly chart now shows price hovering just above the $130 support area, a zone tested multiple times in early 2025 and again in mid-2024. The real structural danger, however, lies below: the EMA 200 sits at $117.59, marking the most important long term support on the chart. A revisit to this EMA would not be unusual given the magnitude of the current breakdown.
From a structural standpoint, the market has shifted decisively bearish. SOL is below the EMA 9, EMA 12, EMA 26, EMA 50, and approaching long term moving averages. Momentum has collapsed, volume has increased during selloffs, and liquidity is clustering downward on the VPVR.
📊 Key Levels (Weekly)
🔴 Resistance:
$156
$170
$176
$183
🟢 Support:
$136
$130
$117 (EMA 200)
$103
📈 Moving Averages (Weekly)
EMA 9 → $181.94
EMA 12 → $185.03
EMA 26 → $183.99
EMA 50 → $176.32
EMA 200 → $117.59
All EMAs are now stacked bearishly on the weekly timeframe, with the EMA 9, EMA 12 and EMA 26 crossing downward and beginning to diverge lower. This alignment is characteristic of mid-cycle corrections and confirms that sellers maintain dominant control.
The price has not closed above the EMA 9 in several weeks, reinforcing breakdown momentum. The distance between price and the EMA 50 is widening, suggesting that if buyers do not reappear soon, Solana may gravitate toward deeper supports such as $130 and $117.
📊 Momentum Indicators and Market Dynamics
Momentum indicators are aligned fully with the bearish structure.
The Stochastic RSI is deeply oversold, sitting at 3.99–0.00, signaling exhaustion but not yet offering bullish divergence. Historically, SOL often forms weekly bottoms only after Stoch RSI crosses upward—something that has not yet occurred.
The RSI (14) sits at 39.12, losing the key 50 midpoint and failing to show divergence. This reading implies continuous downward momentum without signs of accumulation yet taking place.
The MACD (12,26) remains fully bearish, with the MACD line at 1.04 and signal at 8.32, producing a growing negative histogram. The widening spread between the two lines reflects accelerating bearish momentum, consistent with trend continuation phases.
Volume analysis shows increased sell volume during the breakdown. Weekly selling intensity is now comparable to the May and August corrections, confirming that strong hands have not yet stepped in.
The VPVR reveals heavy supply between $170–$185, meaning that any rally into this region is likely to face immediate resistance and distribution pressure.
🚀 Bullish Scenario
A bullish reversal remains possible but requires clear signals that are not yet present on the weekly chart. For Solana to shift momentum meaningfully, it must first defend the $130–$136 support zone. A weekly close above this band would stabilize structure and avoid a free fall toward $117.
The next requirement is a recovery above $156, the first major resistance and midpoint of the former range. Only after reclaiming $156 can price attempt a move toward $170, a critical price level that previously served as a pivot.
🎯 Long Entry: Above $156–$160 (weekly close confirmation)
📍 Stop Loss: Below $130
🎯 Targets:
$170
$176 (EMA 50)
$183 (EMA 26 confluence)
📊 Probability: 30% (relief rally possible but not yet supported by indicators)
Even if a bounce occurs, the region between $170–$183 is a major decision zone. Failure to reclaim this range would produce a lower high, reinforcing the downtrend.
A true trend reversal would require price to close above $183, push RSI back above 50 and produce a bullish cross on the MACD histogram.
📉 Bearish Scenario
The bearish scenario remains the dominant outlook. As long as SOL trades below the EMA 50 and remains capped by the descending trendline, downward continuation is the higher probability.
A breakdown below $130 would trigger a new wave of selling, pushing the weekly structure toward the $117 EMA 200, the most important macro support for Solana. If $117 fails, the next structural zone sits at $103, the base of a prior multi month accumulation range.
🔻 Short Entry: Below $130 (weekly close)
📍 Stop Loss: Above $145
🔻 Targets:
$117
$110
$103
📊 Probability: 70% (trend fully bearish and momentum indicators confirm continuation)
The bearish case strengthens if the weekly RSI drops below 35 or if Bitcoin fails to recover its own key support zones.
📌 Best Strategy: Wait for Confirmation
Given the severity of the weekly breakdown and the proximity to major supports, the most disciplined approach is to wait for clear confirmation before anticipating reversal or continuation.
Key elements to monitor include:
- Weekly candle reaction at $136 and $130
- Divergence signals on RSI or MACD
- Volume increase on bullish reactions
- Bitcoin’s reaction to its own macro levels
Until these conditions appear, volatility is expected to remain elevated and dominated by downward pressure.
🧐 What to Watch in the Coming Days
📈 Bullish Signals:
Weekly close above $156
RSI reclaiming 45+
Bullish cross on Stochastic RSI
Breakout from descending trendline at $170
💰 Bearish Signals:
Weekly close below $130
MACD histogram deepening
Break of EMA 200 at $117
Bitcoin failing to hold macro supports
🔄 Timeline Outlook:
Short term (next 5 days): High volatility with possible retest of $130
Mid term (1–2 weeks): Range expected between $130–$156 unless a breakdown occurs
Late November: A close above $170–$176 could trigger recovery; a close below $117 would confirm macro continuation
Source of the Chart: TradingView
📜 Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading and investing in cryptocurrencies involve a high level of risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The information provided here reflects market conditions at the time of writing and may change without notice. Neither the author nor this platform is responsible for any financial losses incurred as a result of trading decisions based on this analysis.
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