Bitcoin is attempting to extend its recovery from the June lows, and the latest daily candle has pushed price back toward one of the most important short-term resistance areas visible on the chart. BTC is currently trading around 66,750, after opening near 65,213 and reaching an intraday high close to 66,924.
The current movement is constructive on the lower portion of the daily structure. Price has recovered above the short-term moving averages, momentum indicators are improving, and the MACD has moved back into positive territory. However, none of these elements is sufficient, on its own, to confirm that the broader bearish trend has ended.
Our interpretation remains cautious.
Bitcoin is showing a credible relief rally and may still have room to move higher, but the dominant daily structure continues to reflect a market that broke down from an ascending channel, created a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, and remains below a declining 200-day exponential moving average.
For this reason, the current rise should still be treated as a recovery inside a broader bearish structure rather than the beginning of a confirmed new bullish trend.
The area between approximately 73,700 and 74,000 is likely to become the decisive technical zone. The horizontal resistance near 73,765 and the 200-day EMA around 73,941 are almost perfectly aligned. This confluence makes the region particularly important.
Nevertheless, the bearish trend would not be invalidated simply because Bitcoin touches the 200-day EMA. A genuine structural invalidation would require price to reclaim that moving average, hold above it, establish acceptance in the area, and subsequently break the previous major lower high around 80,000–81,500.
Until that happens, the broader bearish thesis remains valid.
1. Bitcoin Daily Market Structure
The first step is to separate the short-term price movement from the larger daily structure.
Bitcoin previously traded inside a rising channel extending from the February lows toward the May high. During that phase, price repeatedly respected the lower boundary of the channel and continued to create higher lows. The market maintained a constructive structure, even when volatility increased.
That changed during the breakdown in late May and early June.
BTC lost the lower boundary of the ascending channel with a strong bearish expansion. This was not simply a small deviation below support. Price accelerated lower, broke through several moving averages, and moved rapidly toward the 60,000 region.
The breakdown transformed the market structure.
Before the breakdown, buyers were successfully defending progressively higher prices. After the breakdown, every recovery began to face selling pressure at lower levels. That is the essential characteristic of a bearish trend: not merely falling prices, but the inability of buyers to reclaim previous structural highs.
The rejection from the 80,000–81,500 region created the most relevant major lower high currently visible on the chart. From that point, BTC entered a broad decline, eventually forming a descending channel.
Inside that descending structure, Bitcoin moved from the upper boundary toward the 60,000 area, briefly traded below it, and then began the recovery that is now testing the upper side of the local channel.
This means that two different structures are currently interacting:
The short-term structure has improved because Bitcoin has recovered from the lows and generated a series of local higher lows.
The broader daily structure remains bearish because price is still below the 200-day EMA and below the previous major lower high.
This distinction is crucial. A short-term bullish structure can develop inside a larger bearish trend. In fact, some of the strongest rallies occur during bearish phases because short positions are closed, liquidity is recovered, and traders temporarily increase risk exposure.
The current move may therefore be bullish from a tactical perspective while remaining bearish from a structural perspective.
2. The Importance of the Breakdown From the Ascending Channel
The previous ascending channel represented the main bullish structure during the first part of the chart.
Bitcoin repeatedly moved between the channel boundaries, with buyers entering near the lower support line and sellers becoming more active near the upper resistance. As long as the channel remained intact, corrections could still be interpreted as pullbacks within an uptrend.
The decisive technical event was the loss of the lower channel boundary.
Once Bitcoin closed below that structure and failed to recover it immediately, the probability of a deeper correction increased. The breakdown was accompanied by strong bearish candles and a visible expansion in volume, which suggested that the movement was not caused solely by a temporary lack of liquidity.
The market then moved sharply lower and entered an entirely different price-discovery process.
From a technical perspective, a broken ascending channel often becomes resistance during future recovery attempts. The previous support line can attract sellers because traders who bought near the channel support may use a return to that area to reduce exposure.
The chart therefore contains several layers of overhead resistance.
Bitcoin must first overcome the local resistance around 66,950–68,000. It would then need to move through the intermediate region between 70,000 and 72,000. Finally, it would face the major confluence near 73,700–74,000, where the 200-day EMA and a horizontal resistance level are located.
This is why the current recovery cannot yet be considered a full trend reversal. The market has improved, but it has not recovered the levels that would force a reassessment of the broader bearish structure.
3. Bitcoin Is Testing the Upper Boundary of the Descending Channel
The current price action is occurring near the upper boundary of the descending channel that has contained Bitcoin since the June breakdown.
This is one of the most important elements of the chart.
When price reaches the upper boundary of a descending channel, two outcomes become possible.
The first is rejection. Sellers defend the upper boundary, the recovery loses momentum, and price rotates back toward the middle or lower portion of the channel.
The second is a breakout. Buyers absorb the available supply, price closes above the resistance line, and the market begins to build a new structure outside the channel.
At the moment, Bitcoin is testing this boundary, but a confirmed breakout has not yet been established.
The daily candle is strong, but price is also approaching the horizontal level around 66,951. This means the market is simultaneously facing a dynamic resistance represented by the descending trend line and a horizontal resistance created by previous price reactions.
A single intraday move above these levels would not be enough. What matters is the daily close and, even more importantly, the reaction after the breakout.
A healthy breakout would ideally include several characteristics:
A decisive daily close above approximately 67,000–68,000.
An expansion in trading volume.
A limited pullback that holds the former resistance as support.
Continuation toward 70,000 and 72,000 without immediately returning inside the channel.
If Bitcoin closes above the channel but falls back below it during the following sessions, the move could become a false breakout. False breakouts are particularly common during bearish or transitional market phases because short-term buying pressure can temporarily push price above resistance without creating sufficient demand to sustain the move.
Therefore, the current area should not be evaluated only through the latest candle. The next two or three daily closes may provide more useful information than the initial breakout attempt.
4. The Short-Term Moving Averages Are Improving
Bitcoin has recovered above the cluster of short-term moving averages located between approximately 63,978 and 65,063.
This is a positive development.
The first relevant dynamic support is currently near 65,063. A second level is visible around 64,502, while another moving average is positioned close to 63,978.
The concentration of these moving averages creates a support band between approximately 64,000 and 65,100. As long as BTC remains above this area, the immediate recovery structure can continue.
Short-term moving averages are useful because they show whether recent market participants are operating at a profit or a loss. When price remains above them and the averages begin turning upward, short-term buyers generally maintain greater control.
The current chart shows that the fastest average has already begun to turn higher. The slower short-term averages are also stabilizing.
However, moving-average positioning must be interpreted within the larger context.
Bitcoin may be above the short-term averages while remaining below the 200-day EMA. This creates a mixed regime: short-term momentum is bullish, but long-term trend confirmation is still missing.
This kind of configuration often appears during relief rallies.
The market recovers above the faster averages first. If the rally continues, those averages begin to rise and eventually approach the longer-term moving average. At that stage, the market must prove whether it has enough strength to change the broader trend or whether the long-term resistance will cause another rejection.
The short-term moving averages are therefore supporting the recovery, but they do not invalidate the larger bearish structure.
A close back below 65,063 would be the first sign that momentum is weakening. A further move below 64,500 and 63,978 would materially damage the current recovery and increase the probability of a return toward 60,000.
5. The 200-Day EMA Is the Main Regime Filter
The 200-day exponential moving average is currently located near 73,941 and continues to slope downward.
This is the most important trend filter on the chart.
When price trades below a declining 200-day EMA, the dominant trend is normally considered bearish or, at minimum, structurally weak. The downward slope indicates that the average price over a long period is falling and that recoveries are occurring beneath a major layer of historical supply.
The position of the 200-day EMA is especially relevant because it aligns almost perfectly with horizontal resistance around 73,765.
This creates a major confluence zone between approximately 73,700 and 74,200.
A confluence occurs when different technical elements identify the same area as important. In this case, Bitcoin would face both a major moving average and a former horizontal support-resistance zone.
That increases the likelihood that sellers will become active in the region.
We agree that the 200-day EMA is central to the invalidation of the bearish thesis, but the invalidation process should be defined more precisely.
A simple touch of the 200-day EMA would not invalidate the downtrend.
An intraday move above it would not be sufficient either.
Even a single daily close above the average could still become a false breakout.
A stronger invalidation would require Bitcoin to close above the 200-day EMA, hold the area during a pullback, and build a higher low above or near the reclaimed level.
The market would then need to attack the previous major lower high around 80,000–81,500.
Only after that previous high is broken would the sequence of lower highs be meaningfully disrupted.
Therefore, the 200-day EMA is the first major structural gate, not the final confirmation of a new bull trend.
The transition would ideally occur in stages:
First, Bitcoin breaks the descending channel.
Second, price establishes support above 67,000–68,000.
Third, BTC moves through 70,000–72,000.
Fourth, price reclaims the 73,700–74,000 confluence.
Fifth, the market holds above the 200-day EMA.
Sixth, Bitcoin breaks the 80,000–81,500 lower high.
Until these conditions are completed, the broader bearish structure remains active.
6. Volume Does Not Yet Confirm a Major Reversal
Volume provides an important comparison between the previous decline and the current recovery.
The June breakdown was accompanied by a visible increase in trading activity. Large red volume bars appeared during the strongest bearish movement. This indicates that the decline was supported by meaningful participation rather than occurring in an illiquid environment.
The current recovery has developed on more moderate volume.
There are positive sessions with increasing participation, but the buying pressure has not yet produced the same level of expansion seen during the breakdown.
This does not mean the rally must fail. Price can continue higher without an immediate volume explosion. However, a genuine trend reversal normally becomes more credible when resistance breakouts are supported by increasing volume.
The current volume profile is more consistent with a controlled recovery than with an aggressive transition into a new bullish phase.
For the breakout above 67,000–68,000 to become convincing, we would prefer to see buying volume expand above the recent average.
The same applies to the 200-day EMA. A low-volume move above 74,000 would be vulnerable to rejection, while a strong close accompanied by significant volume would suggest that market participants are willing to absorb the supply located in that region.
Volume should therefore be treated as a confirmation tool.
Price leads, but volume helps determine whether the movement is supported by broad participation.
At present, price is improving faster than volume. This keeps the recovery valid but does not justify declaring a confirmed bullish reversal.
7. Momentum Indicators Show Improvement
The momentum indicators in the lower part of the chart are moving higher.
The custom oscillator has recovered from deeply depressed conditions and is now approaching the upper half of its range. Several component lines have turned upward, and the broader momentum structure no longer reflects the extreme weakness seen during the previous decline.
This supports the idea that buyers have regained short-term control.
At the same time, momentum has not reached an obvious extreme overbought condition. This means Bitcoin could still continue higher before the recovery becomes technically stretched.
The momentum picture is therefore constructive for the short term.
However, momentum indicators should not be used independently from price structure. An oscillator can remain strong while price approaches major resistance. It can also generate bullish readings during a recovery that eventually becomes a lower high.
The most important question is not simply whether momentum is rising. The more relevant question is whether rising momentum allows Bitcoin to break and hold above resistance.
If the oscillator reaches a high reading while price remains trapped below 67,000–68,000, the risk of bearish divergence could increase. That would occur if momentum makes a stronger high while price fails to produce a comparable structural breakout.
For now, the oscillator confirms the relief rally, but it does not yet confirm a new trend.
8. MACD Analysis
The daily MACD has improved significantly.
The MACD line has crossed above the signal line, and the histogram has moved into positive territory. This indicates that downside momentum is weakening and short-term upside acceleration is increasing.
The bullish crossover occurred after a prolonged bearish phase, making it relevant.
The MACD structure suggests that Bitcoin may have enough momentum to test higher resistance levels. It supports the possibility of a move toward 68,000, 70,000, or even the 72,000–74,000 region if price confirms the breakout from the descending channel.
Nevertheless, the MACD remains relatively close to the neutral area. The positive histogram is growing, but it has not yet produced a powerful expansion comparable to the strongest bullish phases visible earlier on the chart.
This means the indicator is signaling recovery rather than a mature bullish trend.
A stronger bullish confirmation would occur if the MACD lines continue rising above the zero line while the histogram expands. That would suggest that the recovery is developing into a broader momentum shift.
Conversely, if Bitcoin is rejected from current resistance and the histogram begins contracting, the bullish crossover could lose relevance quickly.
The MACD currently favors short-term continuation, but price action near resistance will determine whether that momentum can survive.
9. Key Resistance Levels
The first resistance is located around 66,950–68,000.
This is the immediate decision area. It includes the horizontal resistance around 66,951 and the upper boundary of the descending channel.
A daily close above this zone would improve the technical picture and open the path toward higher targets.
The second resistance area is approximately 70,000–72,000.
This zone represents an important psychological region and a transition area between the local descending structure and the major long-term resistance above.
Bitcoin may experience temporary consolidation or profit-taking in this region even after breaking the current channel.
The third and most important resistance area is 73,700–74,000.
The horizontal resistance near 73,765 and the 200-day EMA around 73,941 create a major technical barrier. This is the level that could determine whether the current movement remains a relief rally or begins developing into a broader structural reversal.
Above that zone, the next major resistance is around 80,000–81,500.
This region contains the previous major swing high and the origin of the most recent bearish leg. A breakout above it would invalidate a significant part of the lower-high structure.
The final visible resistance is around 83,900.
A move above this level would place Bitcoin back near the upper portion of the previous trading structure and would strongly increase the probability of a renewed bullish regime.
10. Key Support Levels
The first support is located near 65,063.
This level corresponds to the fast moving average and the horizontal area that Bitcoin has recently reclaimed. Holding above it would preserve the immediate bullish momentum.
The second support zone lies between approximately 63,978 and 64,502.
This area contains two additional moving averages and recent price congestion. A pullback into this zone could still be considered constructive, provided buyers defend it and create a higher low.
A daily close below 63,978 would weaken the recovery substantially.
The next major support is approximately 60,072.
The 60,000 region is the most important structural support beneath the current price. It has already generated multiple reactions and remains a critical psychological threshold.
If Bitcoin loses 60,000 with a decisive daily close, the probability of a return toward the lower boundary of the descending channel would increase.
That lower target is currently located around 56,000–57,000.
Below the channel support, the next visible areas are approximately 52,000 and 50,288.
The 50,000 region would become relevant only in the event of a major bearish continuation, but it should not be ignored because it represents a clear historical reference on the chart.
11. Bullish Scenario
The bullish scenario begins with a confirmed breakout above 66,950–68,000.
Bitcoin would need to close above the descending channel and demonstrate that the move is not simply an intraday liquidity sweep.
The ideal bullish sequence would be a daily close above resistance, followed by a controlled retest of the breakout area. If price holds approximately 66,000–67,000 as support, the probability of continuation toward 70,000 and 72,000 would increase.
The primary bullish target would then become the 73,700–74,000 confluence.
At that point, the market would face its most important test.
A rejection from the 200-day EMA would keep the broader bearish trend intact. A successful breakout and consolidation above the average would materially improve the daily structure.
If Bitcoin reclaims 74,000 and converts it into support, the next target would be the previous swing area around 80,000–81,500.
A break above 81,500 would be the first strong indication that the bearish sequence of lower highs has been invalidated.
From there, BTC could target approximately 83,900 and potentially return to a broader bullish structure.
This scenario is possible, especially because momentum and the MACD are improving. However, it requires several resistance levels to be broken in sequence. It should not be assumed simply because price has recovered above the short-term moving averages.
12. Neutral Consolidation Scenario
Bitcoin may also enter a period of consolidation between approximately 64,000 and 68,000.
This would allow the short-term moving averages to catch up with price and could reduce the risk of an immediate overextension.
In this scenario, BTC would repeatedly test the current resistance without producing a decisive breakout. Buyers would continue defending the 64,000–65,000 region, while sellers would remain active near 67,000–68,000.
Such a range could persist for several sessions.
Consolidation would not be inherently bearish. In fact, holding close to resistance without experiencing a sharp rejection can indicate that supply is gradually being absorbed.
The key factor would be the direction of the eventual breakout.
A close above 68,000 would favor continuation toward 70,000–74,000.
A close below 63,978 would favor a return toward 60,000.
The neutral scenario is therefore a temporary balance rather than a directional conclusion.
13. Bearish Rejection Scenario
The bearish scenario would begin with a rejection from the current 66,950–68,000 resistance.
Bitcoin could produce an upper wick, close back below the channel boundary, and return toward the short-term moving-average cluster.
The first bearish target would be approximately 65,063. Below that, attention would shift to 64,502 and 63,978.
If buyers fail to defend this support band, the current higher-low structure would begin to deteriorate.
A break below 63,978 would expose 62,000 and then the major support around 60,072.
The 60,000 level would become the decisive bearish trigger.
A daily close below 60,000, especially if accompanied by increasing volume, would suggest that the relief rally has failed and that the broader downtrend is resuming.
The next target would be the lower channel boundary around 56,000–57,000.
If that support also fails, Bitcoin could extend the decline toward approximately 52,000 and 50,288.
This scenario remains credible because the larger trend is still bearish, the 200-day EMA is declining, and the current recovery has not yet broken the principal lower-high structure.
14. Potential Long Setup
An aggressive long position could be considered only after a confirmed daily breakout above approximately 67,000–68,000.
The preferred entry would not be the first impulsive candle. A more disciplined approach would wait for a retest of the breakout zone and evidence that former resistance has become support.
An aggressive long setup could use the following structure:
Entry after confirmation above 67,000–68,000.
Initial target around 70,000.
Second target near 72,000.
Primary target around 73,700–74,000.
Invalidation below approximately 64,500–65,000, depending on the entry and risk tolerance.
This would remain a countertrend or transitional trade because Bitcoin would still be below the 200-day EMA.
A more conservative long setup would require a daily reclaim of 74,000, followed by a successful retest of the 200-day EMA.
In that case, the main targets would become 80,000, 81,500, and 83,900.
The conservative setup would offer stronger structural confirmation but a less favorable entry price. That is the trade-off between early positioning and confirmation.
15. Potential Short Setup
A short setup could develop if Bitcoin is rejected from the current resistance zone.
The ideal bearish signal would be a failed breakout above approximately 67,000, followed by a daily close back below 65,000–66,000.
Targets would include 64,500, 63,978, and 60,072.
A protective stop would need to be placed above the rejection high, potentially above 68,500–70,000 depending on volatility and execution strategy.
A second and potentially stronger short opportunity could emerge near the 73,700–74,000 confluence.
If Bitcoin reaches the declining 200-day EMA and produces a clear bearish rejection, the setup would align with the dominant daily trend.
In that case, downside targets could include 70,000, 67,000, 65,000, and potentially 60,000.
The bearish thesis would be invalidated if price reclaims the 200-day EMA, holds above it, and begins building a higher-low structure.
Another short trigger would occur after a confirmed breakdown below 60,000. That setup would target the lower descending-channel boundary around 56,000–57,000, followed by 52,000 and 50,288.
Chasing short positions directly into support would be dangerous. Confirmation and location remain essential.
16. Our View
Our view remains that Bitcoin is still operating within a broader bearish daily trend.
The current recovery is legitimate. It should not be dismissed as meaningless. Price has recovered above the short-term moving averages, the MACD has turned bullish, the momentum oscillator is strengthening, and BTC is testing the upper boundary of the descending channel.
These are positive developments.
However, the market has not yet invalidated the structure created by the breakdown from the ascending channel.
Bitcoin remains below a declining 200-day EMA. It also remains below the 73,700–74,000 resistance confluence and well below the previous major lower high around 80,000–81,500.
For this reason, we interpret the current move as a relief rally inside a bearish or transitional structure.
The most likely near-term development is a test of the 67,000–68,000 resistance area. A confirmed breakout could extend the recovery toward 70,000–72,000 and eventually the 200-day EMA near 74,000.
We would not consider the bearish thesis invalidated merely because Bitcoin reaches the 200-day EMA.
The first meaningful invalidation would require a confirmed reclaim of approximately 74,000 and the creation of acceptance above that level.
The stronger structural invalidation would occur only after Bitcoin breaks the 80,000–81,500 lower high.
Until then, rallies remain vulnerable to rejection.
Our base case therefore allows for additional upside in the short term while maintaining a bearish interpretation of the broader daily trend.
The chart does not currently justify aggressive bearish positioning at any price because momentum is improving and BTC is approaching resistance with strength. At the same time, it does not justify treating the market as fully bullish because the most important structural levels remain unrecovered.
The correct approach is to separate tactical opportunity from strategic trend.
Tactically, Bitcoin may continue higher.
Strategically, the daily trend remains bearish until the market reclaims the 200-day EMA and breaks the previous major lower high.
17. Final Assessment
Bitcoin is entering a decisive phase.
The recovery from the June lows has improved short-term conditions and placed price back above the cluster of faster moving averages. Momentum is rising, the MACD is positive, and buyers are testing the upper boundary of the descending channel.
The immediate resistance between 66,950 and 68,000 will determine whether the recovery can continue.
A successful breakout would expose 70,000, 72,000, and the major 73,700–74,000 confluence.
The 200-day EMA remains the central regime filter, but it must be interpreted together with market structure. Touching the average would not be enough. Bitcoin would need to reclaim it, hold above it, and subsequently break the 80,000–81,500 lower high.
Failure at the current resistance would return attention to 65,063, 64,502, and 63,978.
Losing those supports would expose the critical 60,000 region. A breakdown below 60,000 would likely reopen the path toward 56,000–57,000 and potentially 52,000–50,288.
For now, the short-term recovery is bullish, but the broader daily structure remains bearish.
The market is improving, but it has not yet completed the work required to confirm a genuine trend reversal.
Disclaimer: This analysis is provided for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile, and every trading decision should be based on independent research, appropriate risk management, and personal financial circumstances.
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