Bitcoin Price Under Pressure: The Four Forces That Could Trigger a Deeper August Selloff

Bitcoin enters August in a technically fragile position after another failed attempt to establish control above $65,000. The Bitcoin price fell toward $62,400 at the end of the week, erasing part of the recovery that had briefly restored confidence across the crypto market. That move was not large enough to confirm a new capitulation phase, but it was significant enough to expose how vulnerable the market remains when macroeconomic uncertainty, geopolitical risk, institutional flows and technical weakness begin to reinforce one another.

The central issue is not that one indicator has produced a bearish signal. Markets rarely break because of a single chart pattern, one Federal Reserve meeting or one day of ETF redemptions. The real risk comes from convergence. The Bitcoin price is now being tested by four different forces at the same time: a Federal Reserve decision that was more restrictive than the unchanged rate suggested, renewed escalation around the Strait of Hormuz, a reversal in spot Bitcoin ETF flows and a price structure that has repeatedly failed to convert rebounds into trend confirmation.

This combination does not guarantee another selloff. Bitcoin still has a credible bullish path if risk assets remain strong, energy prices stabilize and institutional demand returns. However, the burden of proof has shifted. Buyers now need to demonstrate that the decline toward $62,400 was a contained post-FOMC reset rather than the beginning of another leg lower.

Why the Bitcoin Price Is Entering August From a Position of Weakness

The Bitcoin price spent much of the previous week attempting to break above $65,000. Each attempt failed to generate the follow-through required to transform resistance into support. By Saturday, the Bitcoin price was trading near $63,000 after reaching an intraday low close to $62,400.

That distinction matters. A market can remain constructive while consolidating below resistance, but repeated failure becomes increasingly important when sellers are also gaining support from external catalysts. The inability to remain above $65,000 showed that demand was not yet strong enough to absorb profit-taking, ETF-related selling and macro uncertainty simultaneously.

The latest decline should therefore be understood as a test of market structure rather than as proof of an irreversible bearish trend. The Bitcoin price remains close enough to $65,000 for buyers to regain control quickly. At the same time, it is also close enough to the $62,400 low and the psychological $60,000 area for another wave of selling to produce a much more serious technical deterioration.

The next week is likely to determine which interpretation becomes dominant. If Bitcoin reclaims $65,000 and ETF flows improve, the selloff may be remembered as another failed breakdown. If the Bitcoin price loses $62,400 while oil, bond yields and the dollar rise, the market could be forced to search for a lower equilibrium.

Reason One: The Federal Reserve Hold Was More Hawkish Than It Looked

The Federal Reserve left the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% on July 29. A superficial interpretation would classify the decision as neutral because the central bank neither raised nor lowered rates. The details were less comfortable for risk assets.

Three FOMC members dissented in favor of a quarter-point rate increase. The official statement also emphasized that inflation remained above the 2% objective and specifically identified energy-related supply shocks as one source of price pressure. A hold accompanied by three votes for a hike is not equivalent to a hold produced by broad agreement that policy is already sufficiently restrictive.

For the Bitcoin price, this changes the transmission mechanism. Bitcoin does not respond only to the current policy rate. It responds to the expected path of rates, real yields, the dollar, liquidity conditions and the risk premium investors demand for holding volatile assets. A central bank that appears increasingly divided between holding and tightening can keep financial conditions restrictive even without immediately changing the policy rate.

The Post-FOMC Pattern Is Less Important Than the Policy Message

It is tempting to argue that Bitcoin regularly declines after Federal Reserve meetings and that the latest $3,000 move was simply another repetition of that pattern. That framing is too mechanical. Historical sequences can be useful, but they do not explain why the Bitcoin price moves or whether the same reaction should continue.

The more important issue is that the July meeting reinforced uncertainty around the next decision. Markets did not receive a clear path toward easier policy. Instead, they received evidence that some policymakers believe inflation risk is serious enough to justify another hike.

That uncertainty is particularly damaging to speculative assets because it raises the probability of abrupt repricing. When investors are confident that the next move will be a cut, weakness can attract buyers who expect future liquidity. When investors must choose between a prolonged hold and a possible hike, rallies become more dependent on incoming data and less supported by monetary-policy expectations.

The Bitcoin price is therefore vulnerable not because an FOMC meeting occurred, but because the meeting failed to remove the most important macro constraint.

Next Week’s Labor Data Creates a Difficult Two-Sided Risk

The first full week of August includes several important U.S. releases. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics calendar, the June Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey is scheduled for August 4, preliminary second-quarter productivity and cost data for August 6, and the July Employment Situation for August 7. The ISM manufacturing and services reports will also provide information on growth and price pressures.

Normally, weak economic data can be bullish for the Bitcoin price because it reduces the probability of tighter monetary policy. The current environment is more complicated. Moderately softer data could help by lowering rate expectations, but a genuinely weak labor report could also trigger a broader risk-off move if investors begin to fear a sharper slowdown.

Strong data carries a different danger. If employment, wages or business activity remain stronger than expected while energy prices are rising, markets may increase the probability of another rate hike. That could push Treasury yields and the dollar higher, both of which tend to reduce the relative appeal of non-yielding and high-volatility assets.

This creates a narrow path for the Bitcoin price. The ideal outcome would be data soft enough to reduce tightening fears but not weak enough to damage the growth narrative. Any result outside that zone could produce volatility.

Higher Yields Can Offset Strength in Equities

The Nasdaq ended the week with a strong session and gained approximately 1.6% over the five trading days. That is constructive for Bitcoin because the two markets have increasingly shared the same institutional risk factors. However, equity strength does not automatically neutralize the effect of rising bond yields.

Technology stocks can rally on company-specific earnings while the broader macro environment remains difficult for crypto. Strong results from major artificial-intelligence and cloud-computing companies can support the Nasdaq even when the Bitcoin price is being pressured by ETF outflows, dollar strength or reduced leverage.

The correct signal is therefore not simply whether the Nasdaq rises. Investors need to observe whether equities rise while yields stabilize, whether market breadth improves and whether the move produces renewed demand for Bitcoin. Without that transmission, the equity rally remains encouraging but incomplete.

Reason Two: The Strait of Hormuz Could Turn Geopolitical Risk Into an Inflation Shock

The escalation in the Middle East is not only a conventional risk-off event. Its importance comes from the location of the conflict and the possibility that security problems in the Strait of Hormuz could affect global energy supply.

Iran said it had stopped or struck vessels attempting to move through the strait, while additional ships reportedly reversed course. Reuters reported that traffic remained thin, while the United States was considering further military action after the breakdown of earlier arrangements. The precise military path remains uncertain, but the market does not need a complete closure of the strait to price a larger risk premium into oil, shipping and insurance.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that approximately 20 million barrels of petroleum liquids moved through the Strait of Hormuz each day in 2024, equivalent to roughly 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption. Around one-fifth of global liquefied natural gas trade also passed through the route.

For the Bitcoin price, the danger is the chain reaction. A disruption or credible threat of disruption can raise oil prices. Higher oil can increase inflation expectations. Higher inflation expectations can push bond yields upward and make the Federal Reserve less willing to ease. That can strengthen the dollar, tighten financial conditions and reduce demand for risk assets.

Bitcoin Trades Through the Weekend When Traditional Markets Are Closed

The fact that the Bitcoin price trades within a twenty-four-hour market structure makes weekend escalation particularly important. Oil futures, Treasury markets and U.S. equities close, but Bitcoin continues trading. When a major geopolitical event occurs on Saturday or Sunday, the Bitcoin price can become one of the first liquid global assets available for expressing risk.

That does not mean Bitcoin provides an accurate forecast of how traditional markets will open. Weekend liquidity can be thinner, price moves can be exaggerated and traders may reverse positions once larger markets return. Nevertheless, the Bitcoin price frequently becomes a provisional price-discovery venue when geopolitical information arrives outside traditional market hours.

This increases the probability of sharp moves around the $62,400 support area. A negative headline could force the Bitcoin price lower before ETF desks and institutional cash markets reopen. A diplomatic de-escalation could have the opposite effect and create a rapid relief rally.

The Main Threat Is Persistent Oil Inflation, Not a Single Headline

Geopolitical headlines often produce short-lived volatility. The more serious scenario would be a sustained increase in energy costs that changes the inflation outlook. If the conflict merely generates one volatile session in oil before shipping normalizes, the effect on the Bitcoin price may fade quickly.

If tanker traffic remains restricted, insurance costs rise and crude prices stay elevated, the macro consequences become more durable. Energy enters production, transport and household consumption across the economy. Persistent price pressure can delay monetary easing even if other inflation categories are moderating.

The July Federal Reserve statement already referred to energy-related supply shocks. That means the central bank is explicitly watching the same channel that the Strait of Hormuz threatens to intensify. The Bitcoin price is therefore exposed to a geopolitical risk that can directly influence monetary policy, not only investor sentiment.

Why the Market Should Avoid Treating War Reports as Certainty

The bearish case must still distinguish confirmed developments from speculative reporting. Claims that a new large-scale U.S. attack is certain should not be treated as established until confirmed by official action or multiple reliable sources. Military planning, threats and diplomatic pressure can change rapidly.

This distinction matters because geopolitical risk premiums can reverse violently. Traders who sell the Bitcoin price solely on an unconfirmed headline may be trapped if the report is denied or negotiations resume. The correct approach is to monitor the observable channels: tanker movements, oil prices, insurance costs, official statements and the response of bond markets.

The risk is real. The outcome is not predetermined.

Reason Three: Spot Bitcoin ETF Flows Have Lost Their Positive Momentum

The third pressure point comes from the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF market. These products had shown signs of recovery during July, but the improvement was not stable enough to establish a durable institutional bid.

Farside Investors data show that the ETFs recorded approximately $233.1 million in net inflows on July 30. One day later, they suffered about $265.4 million in net outflows. Across the full week from July 27 through July 31, the combined result was a net outflow of roughly $61.5 million.

The reversal is important because it occurred immediately after a session that appeared to confirm renewed demand. BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for approximately $122.7 million of the July 31 outflow, while Fidelity’s FBTC lost about $54.8 million and Grayscale’s GBTC recorded around $52.6 million in redemptions.

For the Bitcoin price, this is evidence that institutional demand remains tactical rather than structurally one-directional. Buyers are willing to return, but they have not yet demonstrated the persistence required to absorb every period of weakness.

ETF Flows Are Marginal Demand, Not a Permanent Price Floor

The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs changed the market by creating a regulated channel for asset managers, advisers and institutional allocators. It did not eliminate selling. ETF shares can be created when demand rises and redeemed when investors reduce exposure.

This matters because the Bitcoin price is determined at the margin. A large installed base of ETF assets can coexist with falling prices if the daily balance of new demand and available supply turns negative.

The presence of more than one hundred billion dollars in aggregate ETF assets does not mean that the entire amount is attempting to buy Bitcoin each day. Most of the capital is already invested. What moves the market is the incremental flow, the hedging activity around it and the willingness of other participants to absorb redemptions.

The latest data therefore weaken the argument that ETFs automatically prevent deeper corrections. They remain a powerful structural source of access and potential demand, but they are not an unconditional support mechanism.

The Speed of the Reversal Is More Important Than the Weekly Total

A weekly outflow of $61.5 million is not enormous relative to the size of the Bitcoin market. The more revealing signal is the transition from $233.1 million of inflows on Thursday to $265.4 million of outflows on Friday.

That swing suggests that institutional positioning remains highly sensitive to price, macro news and portfolio risk. It may also reflect rebalancing or short-term trading rather than a permanent rejection of Bitcoin. Even so, the Bitcoin price cannot rely on institutional flows as a bullish catalyst until positive sessions become more consistent.

Block2Learn previously examined the return of Bitcoin ETF inflows while Ether funds moved into outflows. The new reversal demonstrates why one positive session should never be confused with a completed trend change.

ETF Outflows Can Reinforce Technical Weakness

ETF redemptions are most dangerous when they coincide with weak market structure. If outflows occur while the Bitcoin price is above a confirmed support zone and liquidity is strong, the market can absorb them. If they occur while Bitcoin is already rejecting resistance and testing a recent low, they can reinforce existing selling pressure.

The current setup is closer to the second case. The Bitcoin price failed repeatedly near $65,000, moved toward $62,400 and then entered the weekend with institutional flows negative. This does not prove that ETF investors will continue selling next week, but it removes an important cushion.

The most constructive signal would be an immediate return to net inflows while the Bitcoin price holds above $62,400. The most bearish combination would be several consecutive outflow sessions accompanied by a break below that low.

Institutionalization Has Increased Bitcoin’s Connection to Traditional Portfolios

ETFs also change how Bitcoin interacts with the rest of the financial system. Investors can now hold Bitcoin exposure inside the same portfolios that contain equities, bonds and commodities. That improves accessibility, but it also makes Bitcoin easier to reduce when managers cut risk across multiple asset classes.

Academic research has found that Bitcoin’s correlation with major equity indices increased after the approval of spot ETFs. The relationship is not constant, and the Bitcoin price can still decouple, but institutional access means the asset is more exposed to the same allocation decisions that affect technology stocks and other high-beta investments.

This is why the Bitcoin price can fall even when the long-term adoption thesis remains intact. Portfolio managers may reduce exposure because of volatility targets, macro risk or client redemptions rather than because they have rejected Bitcoin permanently.

Reason Four: The Technical Structure Has Not Confirmed a Durable Recovery

The fourth reason for caution is the chart itself. Bitcoin’s rebound attempts have improved sentiment, but they have not yet repaired the broader structure.

The Bitcoin price repeatedly challenged $65,000 and failed. It then fell toward $62,400, creating a clear short-term range between resistance and support. Until one side breaks with confirmation, the market remains vulnerable to false moves. However, repeated tests generally weaken the level being tested. Multiple failures at resistance show that sellers are active, while repeated contact with support can gradually consume available demand.

The $65,000 area is therefore more than a round number. It is the threshold that buyers must reclaim to demonstrate that the latest decline was temporary. The $62,400 area is the first level sellers must break to show that the correction is expanding. Below that, the psychological $60,000 zone becomes the next major test of confidence.

A Sell Signal Is a Warning, Not a Forecast

The TD Sequential signal cited on the three-day chart adds to the caution. The indicator is designed to identify situations in which a trend may be approaching exhaustion or reversal after a sequence of directional candles.

Such tools can be useful for timing, but they should not be treated as deterministic. A sell signal can fail, remain active while price moves sideways or appear before one final rally. Its value increases when it agrees with independent evidence.

In the current environment, the signal is more relevant because it appears alongside failed resistance, ETF outflows, a hawkish monetary-policy risk and geopolitical uncertainty. The indicator does not create the bearish thesis. It contributes to a wider cluster of evidence.

August Seasonality Is Unfavorable but Not Decisive

Historical data also give traders a reason for caution. CoinGlass return data show that Bitcoin has produced negative returns in many previous August periods, although the distribution varies significantly by year. Bespoke Investment Group calculated a median August decline of approximately 7.5%, with positive returns in only around 30% of the observed years.

Seasonality should never be used as a standalone forecast. Bitcoin’s market structure has changed significantly over time through derivatives, institutional custody, spot ETFs and the expansion of global liquidity. A month that was weak in an earlier regime does not have to behave the same way in 2026.

The practical value of seasonality is that it defines a prior probability. When the Bitcoin price enters a historically difficult month with strong momentum and rising demand, the historical pattern can be ignored. When it enters with failed resistance, negative ETF flows and macro uncertainty, seasonality becomes a secondary confirmation of existing risk.

The $60,000 Area Is Psychological and Structural

If the Bitcoin price breaks below $62,400, attention will quickly shift toward $60,000. Round numbers matter because they concentrate orders, headlines, options exposure and investor memory. They are not magical supports, but they often become decision zones.

A brief move below $60,000 followed by an immediate recovery could create a bear trap. A sustained loss of the level, especially during rising ETF outflows and stronger bond yields, would be more damaging. It could force short-term traders to reduce exposure and encourage the market to search for lower demand.

The response matters more than the first touch. Strong markets reclaim important levels quickly. Weak markets allow former support to become resistance.

The Bullish Technical Requirement Is Simple

The bullish requirement is not complicated: the Bitcoin price must recover $65,000 and remain above it. A daily close above the level would be constructive, but confirmation would require follow-through, stronger spot demand and evidence that the move is not being produced solely by leverage.

A recovery above $65,000 accompanied by renewed ETF inflows would invalidate much of the immediate bearish setup. It would show that institutional demand had returned and that the market had absorbed the post-FOMC decline.

Until that happens, rallies below resistance remain recovery attempts rather than a confirmed trend reversal.

Why the Nasdaq and KOSPI Rebounds Matter to the Bull Case

The bearish forces are substantial, but the market is not without positive signals. The Nasdaq rose approximately 1% on Friday and 1.6% over the week, supported by strong earnings from large technology companies. South Korea’s KOSPI produced an extraordinary 17.9% one-day rebound, the largest percentage gain in its history, as semiconductor shares recovered sharply.

These moves matter because they show that global investors are still willing to buy risk when earnings and positioning create the right conditions. They also suggest that part of the previous weakness in technology and semiconductor markets was caused by forced deleveraging rather than a complete collapse in the artificial-intelligence investment thesis.

For the Bitcoin price, a durable global risk-on environment would be supportive. The Bitcoin price often benefits when technology shares rise, volatility declines and capital becomes more willing to move toward higher-beta assets.

The KOSPI Rally Was Also a Rebound From Severe Damage

The 17.9% KOSPI surge must be placed in context. Even after the record session, the index was still on course for a monthly decline of more than 22%. The rally followed a period of severe selling, margin pressure and deleveraging.

That makes the move impressive but not automatically predictive. A violent rebound can mark the beginning of stabilization, or it can be a short-covering event inside a damaged market. The same distinction applies to the Bitcoin price. Large green candles are not sufficient unless they change the sequence of highs, lows and capital flows.

The bullish case becomes stronger if Asian equities retain their gains, the Nasdaq continues higher and the improvement broadens beyond a small group of mega-cap companies. If the rebound fades while oil and yields rise, its relevance to Bitcoin will diminish.

Bitcoin Does Not Have to Follow Equities Immediately

Correlation is not synchronization. Bitcoin and the Nasdaq can share a macro regime while moving differently over several sessions. Crypto-specific flows, leverage and market structure can delay or amplify the relationship.

The Bitcoin price may therefore remain weak while equities rally, especially if ETF investors are redeeming shares or if traders are reducing leverage. Conversely, Bitcoin can outperform later if the equity rally lowers volatility and encourages capital to move into crypto.

The key question is whether the positive equity impulse survives the weekend and reaches the Bitcoin market. A recovery above $65,000 would be the clearest evidence that it has.

The Bitcoin Price Scenarios for the Coming Week

The next week should be analyzed through conditional scenarios rather than one fixed prediction. The market is close to levels that can produce very different outcomes depending on the interaction between macro data, oil, ETF flows and technical confirmation.

Base Scenario: Volatile Consolidation Between $62,400 and $65,000

The base scenario is a period of unstable consolidation. In this case, the Bitcoin price holds the recent low near $62,400 but fails to establish a sustained breakout above $65,000.

ETF flows alternate between modest inflows and outflows, oil remains elevated without another major disruption and U.S. data fail to produce a decisive change in Federal Reserve expectations. The market continues trading headlines while liquidity concentrates around the edges of the range.

This outcome would not resolve the broader direction, but it would allow the market to absorb the post-FOMC decline. The longer Bitcoin remains above $62,400, the greater the probability that sellers are losing momentum. The longer it remains below $65,000, the more resistance is reinforced.

Bearish Scenario: A Break Below $62,400 Opens a Test of $60,000

The bearish scenario requires confirmation below the recent low. A geopolitical escalation, stronger-than-expected labor data, rising Treasury yields or additional ETF outflows could provide the catalyst.

If the Bitcoin price breaks $62,400 and cannot reclaim it, the market is likely to test $60,000. That move would be more significant than the original $3,000 decline because it would show that the post-FOMC correction had expanded beyond a routine reset.

The quality of the breakdown would matter. A low-volume weekend move that reverses on Monday would be less bearish than a sustained decline accompanied by ETF redemptions and broad risk-off behavior. Confirmation should come from time, volume and the response to attempted recoveries.

A persistent loss of $60,000 would create a new phase of price discovery, but the current evidence does not justify assuming that outcome before the first support levels have failed.

Bullish Scenario: Reclaiming $65,000 Forces a Reassessment

The bullish scenario begins with stabilization in oil and a continuation of the equity rebound. ETF flows return to positive territory, the labor data reduce fears of another Fed hike and the Bitcoin price absorbs selling around the recent range.

A confirmed recovery above $65,000 would force bearish traders to reconsider. The Bitcoin price would have rejected the breakdown, reclaimed the level that stopped multiple rallies and demonstrated that demand remained available despite the macro risks.

The strongest version of this scenario would include consecutive closes above resistance, improving spot volumes and positive ETF flows. A single intraday spike would not be enough.

The bullish case is credible because risk appetite has not disappeared from global markets. It is not yet confirmed because that appetite has not translated into a durable Bitcoin breakout.

The Indicators That Matter More Than Social-Media Predictions

The next Bitcoin price move will generate a large number of confident forecasts. Investors should focus instead on a limited set of observable indicators.

The first is the daily spot Bitcoin ETF flow. One session can be noise, but a sequence of three to five positive or negative days would reveal whether institutional demand is changing.

The second is the reaction of the Bitcoin price to $62,400 and $65,000. Holding support and reclaiming resistance would improve the structure. Losing support and rejecting recovery attempts would confirm weakness.

The third is oil. The relevant question is not whether crude moves higher for a few hours, but whether the market begins pricing a persistent Hormuz disruption.

The fourth is the U.S. Treasury market. Rising two-year and ten-year yields after the labor data would indicate that investors are pricing a more restrictive Fed path. Falling yields without a collapse in equities would provide a more favorable environment for Bitcoin.

The fifth is the dollar. A stronger dollar usually tightens global liquidity and raises the cost of risk for international investors. A softer dollar would reduce one of the macro pressures on the Bitcoin price.

The sixth is equity breadth. A Nasdaq rally driven by only one or two companies is less useful than a broad risk-on move that includes semiconductors, smaller companies and international markets.

These indicators provide a better framework than relying on one technical signal or one historical analogy.

The Structural Bitcoin Thesis Has Not Been Invalidated

Near-term caution should not be confused with a rejection of Bitcoin’s long-term role. The network’s fixed supply, global settlement capability, institutional custody infrastructure and expanding access remain intact. Spot ETFs continue to hold substantial assets even when daily flows turn negative.

The distinction between structure and timing is essential. A structurally valuable asset can still experience a severe cyclical decline. A bullish long-term thesis does not guarantee a favorable entry at every price, and a bearish weekly setup does not eliminate the possibility of long-term appreciation.

This is also relevant to companies that hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets. Block2Learn’s analysis of Strategy’s changing mNAV framework and Bitcoin premium shows how market structure, financing conditions and investor sentiment can alter the value of Bitcoin-linked exposure even when the underlying asset remains the same.

The current Bitcoin price warning is therefore about risk management. It argues that the market has not yet earned the right to be treated as technically secure.

Why Learning the Macro Transmission Mechanism Matters

Bitcoin is no longer isolated from the traditional financial system. Federal Reserve policy affects yields and the dollar. Energy shocks affect inflation expectations. ETF flows connect Bitcoin to regulated portfolios. Equity volatility influences institutional risk budgets. Technical levels determine where leverage is added or removed.

Understanding those connections is more valuable than memorizing predictions. The Block2Learn Learning Path is designed to build that structure progressively, from monetary systems and investment fundamentals to trading, crypto markets, wealth strategy and portfolio frameworks.

The objective is not to predict every daily candle. It is to understand why the Bitcoin price reacts, which variables matter and how to distinguish a temporary headline move from a genuine change in regime.

Information is abundant. Structure is rare.

Final Assessment: The Risk Is Real, but Confirmation Still Matters

The Bitcoin price enters the first week of August with a clear set of vulnerabilities. The Federal Reserve delivered a hold that included three votes for a hike. The Strait of Hormuz has become a direct threat to energy stability and inflation expectations. Spot Bitcoin ETFs reversed a strong inflow session and ended the week with net redemptions. The chart failed repeatedly at $65,000 and is now testing the area around $62,400.

None of those factors alone guarantees another selloff. Together, they create a market in which negative catalysts can travel more quickly through liquidity, leverage and investor positioning.

The central bearish trigger is a confirmed loss of $62,400. That would increase the probability of a test of $60,000 and show that the decline is no longer only a post-FOMC correction. The central bullish trigger is a recovery above $65,000 supported by ETF inflows and a calmer macro backdrop.

Until one of those conditions is met, the correct Bitcoin price outlook is cautious rather than catastrophically bearish. The market remains capable of rebounding, especially if the Nasdaq and Asian equities extend their recovery. However, buyers have not yet demonstrated enough strength to neutralize the four forces currently pressing against the market.

The next move should not be anticipated through certainty. It should be confirmed through price, flows and macro conditions.