Bitcoin, Chart Analysis, News – November 1, 2025
Bitcoin has entered November trading in a narrow range between $107K and $116K, showing indecision after several weeks of strong volatility. The latest FOMC rate cut and the positive outcome of the Trump–Xi meeting have temporarily improved global market sentiment, helping BTC stabilize above the $110K mark.
However, while the broader macro landscape now favors risk assets, the weekly chart shows a technically complex setup — with resistance near $113K–$114K and key supports at $109K and $106K defining the next potential direction.
🔍 Key Levels and Current Structure
Bitcoin’s weekly structure reflects consolidation following the late-October volatility. After rejecting near $116K, price action has gravitated around the EMA 26 ($109,562), which currently acts as a dynamic support level.
The current weekly candle shows a long upper wick and relatively smaller body, reflecting indecision between bulls and bears after last week’s failed breakout attempt.
The 9 EMA ($113,344) and 12 EMA ($113,181) are flattening, signaling that momentum has slowed after the strong bullish leg seen in mid-October. The 50 EMA ($100,885) remains far below, confirming that the medium-term trend is still bullish — but losing steam in the short term.
📊 Key Levels:
- 🔴 Resistance Zones: $113,800 / $116,400 / $118,900
- 🟢 Support Zones: $109,500 / $107,200 / $103,000
- ⚙️ Pivot Range: $110,000–$113,000 (confluence of EMAs and high-volume nodes)
Volume analysis shows dense trading between $109K and $113K — the high-value zone (HVN) of the visible range profile. A clean weekly close above $113,500 would confirm a shift in control toward buyers and reopen the path to $116K and higher.
📈 Moving Averages Overview
The weekly EMAs remain stacked in bullish alignment, though the slope of the 9 and 12 EMAs is flattening. This configuration suggests consolidation rather than trend reversal.
- EMA 9: $113,344 (minor resistance)
- EMA 12: $113,181
- EMA 26: $109,562
- EMA 50: $100,885
- EMA 200: $65,290
The broader market structure remains intact as long as BTC holds above $109K. A drop below this area could lead to a retest of $106K — where the last major accumulation occurred. The EMA 50 near $101K marks the long-term “line in the sand” for trend reversal.
📊 Market Liquidity and Volume Profile
The volume profile shows the most intense trading cluster between $109K and $113K, which has acted as a magnet for price throughout October.
Above $113.8K, there’s a notable liquidity gap until $116.4K, suggesting that any breakout could lead to a rapid move higher due to thin order books.
On the downside, $107K marks the next volume pocket — if Bitcoin loses this level, a sharp drop to $103K becomes likely, as there’s limited buyer interest between those levels.
The weekly volume bars confirm a reduction in volatility compared to early October, implying that institutional traders are waiting for a macro catalyst — likely the Fed’s December outlook or any update on ETF inflows — before committing to larger directional positions.
📈 Technical Indicators Overview
- Stochastic RSI (3, 3, 14, 14): Reading near 10.03, deep in the oversold zone, suggesting that downward momentum is losing strength and a rebound could form in the coming weeks.
- RSI (14): Currently at 51.03, hovering around the midline — neutral but slightly leaning bullish. RSI staying above 50 confirms that the broader structure remains constructive.
- MACD (12, 26, 9): The MACD line (3,618) still sits above the signal line (-1,345), but histogram bars are contracting. This reflects a weakening bullish impulse and hints at possible sideways price action before any renewed trend move.
In summary, indicators are neutral-to-bullish: momentum has cooled but not reversed. As long as RSI remains above 50 and Stoch RSI turns upward, BTC could regain upside traction by mid-November.
🚀 Bullish Scenario
In the bullish case, Bitcoin needs to reclaim $113,500–$114,000 on strong volume. This would confirm a successful breakout from the current compression zone and open targets toward $116,400 first and $118,800 next — levels coinciding with prior rejection zones and Fibonacci extensions.
🎯 Long Entry: Above $113,800 (weekly confirmation)
📍 Stop-loss: Below $109,500
🎯 Targets: $116,400 → $118,900 → $124,000
📊 Probability: ~65% based on macro sentiment and EMA structure
Macro catalysts supporting this view include the Fed’s dovish tone and the improved geopolitical landscape following the Trump–Xi trade discussions. Both factors may increase market appetite for risk assets, with Bitcoin often leading that rotation.
Should BTC close this week above $113,500, November could open with momentum extending to new highs — particularly if ETF inflows remain steady and the dollar index (DXY) continues its recent decline.
📉 Bearish Scenario
The bearish case becomes more likely if BTC fails to defend $109K. A weekly close below the EMA 26 ($109,562) would signal short-term weakness and invite a move toward $107K or even $103K.
🔻 Short Entry: Below $108,800 (confirmed candle)
📍 Stop-loss: Above $111,800
🎯 Targets: $107,000 → $103,000 → $100,000
📊 Probability: ~35%, increasing if macro conditions worsen
A sudden rebound in the U.S. dollar or risk aversion due to disappointing economic data could trigger this downside scenario. The Fed’s cautious tone — stating that further rate cuts are “not guaranteed” — might also limit the enthusiasm in risk assets.
In that case, the MACD could cross bearish, and RSI might dip below 50, confirming the start of a corrective leg toward the lower end of the trading range.
📌 Best Strategy: Wait for Confirmation
Given the overlapping EMAs and narrow weekly range, patience remains the most strategic approach. Traders should wait for a weekly close above $113.5K or below $109K before committing to either side.
🧐 What to Watch in November:
📈 Fed statements and inflation data (CPI, PPI)
💰 ETF inflows and on-chain whale accumulation
🌏 Global market sentiment after the Trump–Xi trade dialogue
A breakout above $113.5K with expanding volume could validate a bullish continuation, while failure to hold above $109K could trigger a mid-term pullback to $106K–$103K.
📊 Market Context and On-Chain Outlook
According to CoinGlass data, open interest has slightly decreased since the last week of October, showing that leveraged positions are being reduced as traders await confirmation.
Meanwhile, CryptoQuant reports a continued decline in exchange reserves — a long-term bullish sign indicating that coins are being moved into self-custody.
Network activity remains stable, and miner outflows are low, confirming that there’s no sell pressure from large holders. Combined with the macro narrative of easing monetary policy, these on-chain fundamentals favor a gradual bullish recovery in November.
If the Fed maintains its dovish bias and risk markets stabilize, Bitcoin could attempt a retest of the $117K–$118K region by mid-month. However, a flat volume profile suggests that sustained rallies will require renewed institutional participation.
📈 Summary
- Bitcoin is consolidating between $109K and $113K, awaiting confirmation of direction.
- The golden zone for bullish breakout lies above $113,500, targeting $116K–$118K.
- Support levels remain firm at $109K and $106K, with $103K as the ultimate defensive line.
- Indicators are neutral-bullish; momentum paused but structure remains intact.
- The Fed’s dovish tone and positive global trade sentiment favor mild risk-on behavior.
As long as BTC remains above $109K, the bias stays cautiously bullish for November. A confirmed breakout above $113.5K could reignite the trend toward $120K+, while failure to hold support may result in a temporary correction before resuming the broader uptrend.
Source of the Chart: TradingView
📜 Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading and investing in cryptocurrencies involve a high level of risk. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
