🔍 Key Levels and Current Structure

Bitcoin is currently consolidating below a crucial resistance level after a recovery that began in late June. Following a failed breakout above the $109,000 zone, the daily chart shows the price moving within a tightening range between $107,000 and $108,500, directly under a downward sloping trendline that has defined the market structure for the past several weeks.

The price remains above the 50-day EMA and comfortably sits above the 200-day EMA, which continues to offer support. Volume levels, however, are not rising, indicating hesitation from bulls to push further without a clear catalyst. On the 4H chart, the structure appears slightly stronger, with price action maintaining higher lows and riding above the key moving averages, but the lack of follow-through after local highs is a signal of market fatigue.

From a volume profile standpoint, the $108,000–$108,500 range represents the largest cluster of recent activity. This range will likely determine the breakout direction in the coming days.

📊 Key Levels

🔴 Resistance:
– $108,427 (Point of Control and major horizontal level)
– $109,255 (local high and resistance from June 20)
– $112,033 (year-to-date high)

🟢 Support:
– $107,008 (previous support zone on volume)
– $105,291 (volume node and EMA confluence)
– $100,058 (macro invalidation level and psychological area)

📈 Moving Averages:
– Daily: Price is above the 50 EMA and the 200 EMA
– 4H: Bullish crossover remains intact, but moving averages are converging, showing indecision
– The moving averages are flattening, often a prelude to breakout volatility

📊 Market Liquidity and Volume Profile:
– The area between $105,000 and $106,200 shows strong support and is likely to absorb selling pressure
– Below $104,800, a large volume gap opens the door for fast downside moves toward $100,000
– Above $108,500, liquidity becomes thinner, creating room for a breakout rally if volume accompanies the move

🚀 Bullish Scenario

Bitcoin remains in a bullish consolidation pattern that could turn into a breakout above the current resistance zone. The price has formed a macro bull flag (expanding version) and is holding structure, suggesting bulls are preparing for another leg up.

🎯 Long Entry: $108,800–$109,000
📍 Stop-loss: $106,200
🎯 Targets:
– $112,000 (yearly resistance and breakout confirmation)
– $116,500 (extension based on the current channel range)

📊 Probability: ~60%
Momentum is building, and price structure supports a potential breakout. However, without volume confirmation, the upside remains speculative. Macroeconomic drivers like ETF inflows, inflation data, or geopolitical announcements could serve as catalysts.

📉 Bearish Scenario

The bearish case would emerge with a confirmed breakdown below the $105,200 level, which would invalidate the current bullish structure. A breakdown from this range would likely trigger a fast move toward $100,000, as indicated by the volume void in the VPVR.

🔻 Short Entry: $104,800
📍 Stop-loss: $107,000
🔻 Targets:
– $100,058 (strong historical and psychological support)
– $95,000 (next volume support zone from March–April)

📊 Probability: ~30%
This outcome would require a market-wide catalyst—either negative regulatory news, macro uncertainty, or liquidation waves. So far, there’s no clear trigger, but it’s essential to monitor this level closely as price compresses.

📌 Best Strategy: Wait for Confirmation

Bitcoin is trading in a tight range with both bullish and bearish scenarios forming clearly visible boundaries. The current market behavior shows signs of accumulation, not distribution, but without breakout confirmation, opening new positions at this level carries risk.

🧐 What to Watch in the Coming Days?
📈 A daily close above $109,200 with volume above average would likely trigger a move toward $112,000 and beyond
💰 Watch funding rates and ETF netflows for potential momentum shifts
🔄 If price fails to break resistance and RSI starts declining, expect a retest of the $105,000 level and potentially deeper pullbacks

The weekly structure still favors the bulls as long as Bitcoin remains above $105,000. Until a clean break happens in either direction, the best strategy is to remain patient, follow volume and macro drivers, and prepare for fast moves once the current compression phase resolves.

📜 Disclaimer

This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading and investing in cryptocurrencies involve a high level of risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The information provided here reflects market conditions at the time of writing and may change without notice. Neither the author nor this platform is responsible for any financial losses incurred as a result of trading decisions based on this analysis.

Source of the Chart: TradingView