🔍 Key Levels and Current Structure

Hedera (HBAR) continues to trade inside a broad descending channel that has dominated price action since the strong rejection experienced during the first quarter of 2026. Looking at the daily chart, the asset remains trapped between a series of lower highs and lower lows, confirming that the primary trend is still technically bearish. However, several important elements suggest that the market may be approaching a decisive phase where volatility expansion becomes increasingly likely.

One of the most interesting aspects of the current structure is the behavior around the EMA 12 and EMA 26. After several weeks of weakness, HBAR has recently managed to reclaim both moving averages. While this alone does not confirm a trend reversal, it represents the first sign that short term momentum is beginning to stabilize after an extended corrective phase.

Price is currently trading around $0.093, directly in the middle of a multi month compression range. This area has acted repeatedly as both support and resistance throughout recent months, making it a significant battlefield between buyers and sellers.

The larger concern for bulls remains the EMA 200, currently positioned near $0.112. The market remains substantially below this level, meaning that from a structural perspective HBAR has not yet entered a confirmed recovery phase. Historically, sustained bullish trends tend to develop only after price reclaims and holds above the EMA 200.

At the same time, the descending channel visible on the chart continues to define the broader market structure. Each recovery attempt since February has been rejected near the upper boundary of the channel, while buyers have repeatedly defended the lower trendline near the $0.083 to $0.085 region.

The result is a market that is becoming increasingly compressed, reducing volatility and building the conditions for a larger directional move.

📊 Key Levels:

🔴 Resistance Levels:

• $0.095
• $0.102
• $0.112 (EMA 200)
• $0.120

🟢 Support Levels:

• $0.089
• $0.085
• $0.080
• $0.068

📈 Moving Averages:

The EMA 12 has crossed above the EMA 26, creating a short term bullish signal. However, both averages remain below the EMA 200, which means the longer term bearish structure remains intact.

📊 Market Liquidity:

Volume remains relatively subdued compared to the major expansion phases seen earlier this year. This suggests that neither buyers nor sellers are currently showing aggressive conviction. Instead, the market appears to be waiting for a catalyst capable of breaking the current equilibrium.

🚀 Bullish Scenario

The bullish thesis begins with the observation that HBAR has successfully defended the lower portion of the descending channel multiple times. Each retest of the support zone has attracted buyers, preventing a deeper breakdown.

The RSI currently trades above 56 and is recovering from recent lows. This indicates that momentum is shifting back toward neutral bullish territory. Importantly, RSI is no longer making lower lows while price remains inside the channel, creating early signs of momentum stabilization.

The MACD is also beginning to improve. While still close to the zero line, bearish momentum has largely disappeared and the histogram is gradually recovering. Such behavior often appears before larger directional moves.

For the bullish scenario to gain credibility, HBAR must first establish acceptance above the $0.095 resistance area. This level has repeatedly capped upside attempts during May and represents the first major obstacle.

A successful breakout above $0.095 would expose the next resistance near $0.102. This level is particularly important because it coincides with previous support turned resistance and sits near the upper boundary of the descending channel.

Should buyers manage to break above $0.102 with increasing volume, the market would likely target the EMA 200 near $0.112.

The EMA 200 represents the most critical level on the chart. Reclaiming this moving average would significantly improve the medium term outlook and could trigger renewed speculative interest across the broader altcoin market.

If the EMA 200 is successfully reclaimed and transformed into support, HBAR could potentially target the $0.120 to $0.130 region during the following weeks.

🎯 Long Entry: Daily close above $0.095 with volume confirmation.

📍 Stop Loss: Below $0.089.

🎯 Targets:

• $0.102
• $0.112
• $0.120
• $0.130

📊 Probability: 45%

The bullish case is improving, but confirmation remains necessary. Buyers still need to prove they can overcome the descending channel structure that has controlled price action for several months.

📉 Bearish Scenario

Despite recent stabilization, the bearish structure cannot be ignored.

The dominant trend since January remains downward. Every significant rally has ultimately produced another lower high, reinforcing the control sellers continue to maintain over the market.

One of the biggest risks comes from the current location of price within the channel. HBAR is not breaking out of resistance. Instead, it remains trapped inside the broader structure.

This means the recent recovery could simply represent another temporary bounce before another leg lower.

If price loses the $0.089 support zone, the market could quickly revisit the lower channel boundary around $0.085.

The significance of this support cannot be overstated.

Multiple reactions have occurred in this area during recent months. If buyers fail to defend it again, market psychology could shift rapidly toward fear.

A confirmed breakdown below $0.085 would likely trigger a move toward $0.080.

Below that level, the chart becomes considerably weaker.

The next major support sits near $0.068, which corresponds to the large capitulation zone that previously generated substantial buying interest.

Should broader crypto market conditions deteriorate or Bitcoin lose key support levels, HBAR could experience accelerated downside pressure toward this region.

🔻 Short Entry: Daily close below $0.089.

📍 Stop Loss: Above $0.095.

🔻 Targets:

• $0.085
• $0.080
• $0.075
• $0.068

📊 Probability: 55%

The bearish scenario still maintains a slight advantage because the dominant trend remains downward and the EMA 200 continues acting as distant overhead resistance.

📌 Best Strategy: Wait for Confirmation

The most important observation from the current chart is that HBAR is approaching a decision point.

The compression between support and resistance is becoming increasingly tight. Such structures rarely persist indefinitely.

The temptation for traders is often to anticipate the breakout before confirmation arrives. However, the current chart illustrates why patience can be valuable.

Buying aggressively before resistance breaks exposes traders to another potential rejection inside the channel.

Selling aggressively before support breaks exposes traders to the possibility of a bullish breakout.

The market is currently sitting in the middle of the battlefield.

This means risk to reward remains less attractive than it would be after confirmation from either side.

From a market structure perspective, the cleanest opportunity will likely emerge once price either:

1. Breaks above $0.095 and begins attacking $0.102.
2. Breaks below $0.089 and starts accelerating toward channel support.

Until one of these scenarios develops, discipline may provide a better edge than prediction.

🧐 What to Watch in the Coming Days?

📈 Can HBAR finally break above the descending channel?

💰 Does volume expand during the next breakout attempt?

📊 Will RSI continue strengthening above 60?

🔄 Can buyers eventually challenge the EMA 200 near $0.112?

📉 Will support at $0.089 remain intact?

The answers to these questions will likely determine whether HBAR enters a recovery phase or extends its multi month corrective structure.

As always, technical analysis is not about predicting the future. It is about identifying probabilities, understanding risk, and preparing for multiple outcomes before the market reveals its next move.

The current HBAR structure offers an excellent example of why market participants should focus on confirmation rather than anticipation. Within the Block2Learn Learning Path, this concept represents one of the core principles of professional capital management: reacting to evidence rather than attempting to predict outcomes. In highly compressed environments like the current HBAR setup, preserving capital until the market confirms direction often becomes more valuable than chasing every potential opportunity.

Source of the Chart: TradingView

📜 Disclaimer

This analysis is provided for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and involve substantial risk. Always conduct your own research, evaluate your risk tolerance, and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.