Solana has entered one of the most important technical phases of the current market cycle. After spending much of 2024 and early 2025 outperforming a large portion of the cryptocurrency market, the weekly chart is now showing a significantly different picture. The aggressive rejection from the highs above $290 triggered a structural shift that has gradually transformed what was previously a bullish trend into a prolonged distribution and liquidation phase.

What makes the current situation particularly interesting is that Solana is no longer simply correcting after a strong rally. The asset is now trading below all major moving averages, momentum indicators remain weak, and price has recently broken beneath an important support cluster around the $79 to $85 region. This area had previously acted as both a technical floor and a significant volume node where buyers repeatedly stepped in.

The latest weekly candle suggests that sellers are beginning to regain control after several weeks of sideways consolidation. As often happens in financial markets, periods of low volatility are frequently followed by expansion phases. The key question investors must now answer is whether this expansion will result in a deeper capitulation event toward the major historical support zones or whether buyers will once again defend the market before a larger recovery begins.

The answer will likely determine Solana’s trajectory for the remainder of the year.

🔍 Key Levels and Current Structure

From a pure market structure perspective, Solana remains in a clear downtrend.

The sequence of lower highs and lower lows remains intact across the weekly timeframe. Every major recovery attempt since the all time high region has eventually been rejected by dynamic resistance levels and moving averages.

One of the most notable observations on the chart is the relationship between price and the major exponential moving averages.

📊 Key Levels:

🔴 Resistance Levels:

• $79.00
• $85.20
• $100.55

Additional resistance exists near:

• $112.97 (EMA 200)
• $130.00
• $156.15

🟢 Support Levels:

• $66.50
• $50.00
• $40.00

The loss of the $79 area is particularly important because it represented both horizontal support and a significant volume concentration zone. Once large volume nodes fail, markets often move rapidly toward the next liquidity cluster.

📈 Moving Averages:

The technical structure of the moving averages remains bearish.

• EMA 12: $85.21
• EMA 26: $100.55
• EMA 200: $112.97

Price is currently trading below all three averages.

More importantly, the EMA 12 remains below the EMA 26, confirming that short term momentum continues to favor sellers. The distance between price and the EMA 200 is also significant. Historically, Solana tends to experience prolonged weakness whenever it remains below its long term moving average for extended periods.

The EMA 200 near $113 now represents one of the strongest resistance zones on the entire chart.

📊 Market Liquidity:

The volume profile visible on the chart highlights substantial activity between approximately $80 and $100.

This region has effectively become an institutional battleground.

The problem for bulls is that price is now trading below this area. When large volume zones become overhead resistance, they frequently create significant selling pressure as trapped participants attempt to exit positions during rallies.

This means every recovery toward $80, $85 and $100 could attract fresh supply.

🚀 Bullish Scenario

Despite the current weakness, the bullish case cannot be completely dismissed.

One of the most important characteristics of crypto markets is their ability to generate violent reversals precisely when sentiment becomes overwhelmingly bearish.

The RSI currently trades near 32, approaching oversold territory on the weekly timeframe.

Historically, Solana has often produced significant recoveries whenever weekly RSI approaches the 30 region.

For the bullish scenario to regain credibility, buyers need to accomplish several objectives.

First, price must reclaim the $79 resistance level.

Second, bulls need to close multiple weekly candles above the EMA 12 around $85.

Third, volume must increase during the recovery.

Without volume confirmation, any bounce risks becoming another dead cat rally within the broader downtrend.

🎯 Long Entry:

Aggressive traders may monitor weekly closes above $85.

More conservative participants may prefer confirmation above $100.

📍 Stop Loss:

A weekly close below $66 would invalidate most bullish recovery setups.

🎯 Targets:

• Target 1: $100
• Target 2: $113
• Target 3: $130
• Target 4: $156

If Solana manages to recover above the EMA 200 near $113, the entire market narrative could begin changing once again.

📊 Probability: 40%

The bullish scenario remains possible but currently lacks sufficient technical confirmation.

Momentum indicators continue favoring sellers, meaning bulls still have substantial work ahead.

📉 Bearish Scenario

The bearish scenario currently carries the higher probability.

Several technical factors support this view.

First, price remains below every major moving average.

Second, the market recently lost the critical support cluster around $79.

Third, momentum indicators continue trending lower.

The RSI has not yet shown any convincing bullish divergence, while MACD remains below the zero line despite showing signs of stabilization.

Most importantly, the overall structure remains a sequence of lower highs.

This means sellers continue controlling the trend until proven otherwise.

If the current weekly breakdown accelerates, Solana could enter a liquidation phase targeting the next major liquidity zones.

The lack of substantial historical support between current levels and the $50 region increases this possibility.

🔻 Short Entry:

Bearish traders will likely monitor any failed retest of the $79 to $85 region.

📍 Stop Loss:

A sustained weekly recovery above $100 would weaken the bearish thesis.

🔻 Targets:

• Target 1: $66
• Target 2: $50
• Target 3: $40

The $50 region deserves particular attention.

Historically, this area acted as an important accumulation zone before the explosive rally that followed. If price reaches this level, long term investors may begin reassessing opportunities.

📊 Probability: 60%

Current technical evidence slightly favors further downside unless buyers can rapidly reclaim the recently lost support levels.

📌 Best Strategy: Wait for Confirmation

One of the most common mistakes investors make during periods like this is attempting to predict bottoms.

Markets rarely provide rewards for guessing.

Instead, they reward patience and confirmation.

At the moment, Solana sits between two competing narratives.

The bullish narrative argues that RSI is approaching oversold territory and that a recovery rally could emerge from current levels.

The bearish narrative argues that major support has already failed and that further liquidation remains the path of least resistance.

Neither side has achieved complete confirmation.

This creates an environment where risk management becomes more important than directional conviction.

Rather than focusing on whether Solana will immediately reverse or continue collapsing, investors should focus on observing how price reacts around the critical levels already identified.

The strongest signals often emerge after the market reveals its intentions.

🧐 What to Watch in the Coming Weeks?

📈 Can Solana reclaim the $79 to $85 resistance zone?

💰 Does buying volume increase during recovery attempts?

🔄 Will RSI create a bullish divergence while price tests support?

📊 Can the market eventually recover above the EMA 200 near $113?

The answers to these questions will likely determine whether Solana is building a long term bottom or preparing for another leg lower.

From a broader perspective, this is precisely why structured thinking matters. Most investors focus exclusively on price predictions. Experienced investors focus on probabilities, risk management, and market structure. Understanding the difference between those approaches is often what separates reactive decision making from disciplined capital allocation. For those looking to develop that framework systematically, the Block2Learn Learning Path offers a structured methodology for understanding markets, risk, liquidity, and investor behavior: https://block2learn.com/learning-at-block2learn/

Source of the Chart: TradingView

📜 Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading and investing in cryptocurrencies involve a high level of risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The information provided here reflects market conditions at the time of writing and may change without notice. Neither the author nor this platform is responsible for any financial losses incurred as a result of trading decisions based on this analysis.