Bitcoin is attempting to stabilize near $64,560 after several weeks of progressive weakness, but the weekly structure continues to demand caution. The current candle opened near $63,499, reached an intraday high around $64,716 and temporarily defended the $62,210 area. The resulting recovery is constructive, but the candle is still open and cannot yet be treated as a confirmed reversal.

The broader picture remains significantly more complex than the positive weekly candle suggests. Bitcoin continues to trade beneath several important resistance levels, below the main medium-term moving averages and inside a broader sequence of lower highs that began after the 2025 peak. At the same time, price is testing a rising long-term moving average, the momentum oscillators are showing potential bullish divergences and the weekly MACD is attempting to recover from deeply negative territory.

This means that Bitcoin is no longer in a simple directional decline, but it is not yet in a new bullish trend either.

The market appears to be searching for a bottom.

The distinction is important. Searching for a bottom means that sellers are becoming less effective, momentum is deteriorating more slowly and long-term buyers are beginning to respond. It does not mean that the bottom has already been confirmed. Confirmation requires price to recover key structural levels, invalidate the sequence of lower highs and demonstrate that demand can absorb the supply still positioned above the market.

The divergence between Bitcoin and the traditional equity market makes the current setup even more interesting. The S&P 500 and the Dow have reached fresh record highs, supported by strong corporate earnings, enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence and a temporary decline in oil prices. Bitcoin, however, remains close to $65,000 and approximately one third below its 2025 peak zone.

This relative weakness should not be ignored.

It could eventually produce a powerful catch-up rally if capital rotates from equities into digital assets. But it could also indicate that the liquidity conditions supporting large-cap equities are not yet sufficiently broad to sustain a durable Bitcoin expansion.

Our analysis must therefore separate three different concepts:

1. A short-term rebound from oversold conditions
2. A medium-term bottoming process between $60,000 and $68,000
3. A genuine weekly trend reversal above $71,000 and $74,000

Only the third would materially change the current bearish-to-neutral market structure.

🔍 Key Levels and Current Structure

The weekly Bitcoin structure remains dominated by the decline from the 2025 peak area.

After approaching the upper macro resistance region around $100,000, BTC began producing progressively weaker rebounds. The initial decline generated a substantial corrective leg, followed by a temporary recovery that failed below the previous peak. The market subsequently developed another lower high, broke down again and eventually entered the current consolidation near $60,000 to $68,000.

The most important structural characteristic is the persistence of lower highs.

Bitcoin has repeatedly attempted to recover, but each major rebound has been rejected at a lower level than the one before it. The early 2026 recovery failed near the $73,000 to $76,000 region. The later spring rebound was rejected around $68,400. More recently, price entered a smaller descending channel and returned toward the $60,000 support zone.

As long as this sequence remains intact, every rebound must be classified as a potential relief rally rather than the beginning of a confirmed bullish trend.

The current weekly candle is trying to challenge the upper boundary of the most recent descending structure. This is positive, but the market is still trading beneath the immediate pivot at $65,063 and beneath the descending short-term moving average near $66,149.

The first technical objective is therefore not $80,000, $90,000 or a new all-time high.

The first objective is simply to recover the $65,000 to $67,000 region.

That zone represents the nearest concentration of horizontal supply, dynamic resistance and trapped market participants. Traders who bought the previous consolidation may use a recovery toward this area to reduce exposure. Short sellers may also defend it because it offers a clearly defined invalidation point above the recent descending channel.

A weekly close above $65,063 would improve the immediate structure, but it would not be sufficient by itself. Bitcoin would still need to reclaim $66,149 and $66,951, followed by the more significant resistance around $68,425.

The $68,425 level is particularly important because it corresponds to the high of the previous meaningful rebound. A recovery above it would break the most recent lower high and provide the first objective evidence that the short-term bearish sequence is weakening.

However, even a breakout above $68,425 would initially represent a recovery inside a larger bearish structure.

The major weekly trend would only begin to change after BTC reclaims the $71,187 to $73,765 region. That area includes a descending medium-term moving average, previous horizontal support and a substantial zone of historical trading activity.

Below these levels, Bitcoin remains vulnerable to renewed selling.

Above them, the market could begin transitioning from bottom formation to trend reversal.

📊 Key Levels

The current Bitcoin chart contains several closely grouped levels. Their proximity increases the probability of volatility, false breakouts and rapid reversals. Instead of interpreting each price independently, it is more useful to organize them into structural zones.

The four principal zones are:

Immediate pivot: $64,000 to $65,063
First resistance cluster: $66,149 to $68,425
Trend reversal cluster: $71,187 to $73,765
Critical support: $60,072

The immediate pivot is where the market is trading now. It separates a possible recovery from another rejection toward the weekly lows.

The first resistance cluster will determine whether BTC can transform the current rebound into a more sustainable recovery.

The trend reversal cluster will determine whether the broader bearish structure remains valid.

The $60,072 support will determine whether the current formation is a bottoming range or simply a continuation pattern before another major decline.

🔴 Resistance Levels

$65,063: Immediate Weekly Pivot

The first resistance is positioned near $65,063.

This level is only slightly above the current market price, but it has become technically important because BTC has repeatedly traded around it during the recent consolidation. It acts as a short-term equilibrium between buyers defending the long-term moving average and sellers maintaining control of the descending structure.

A weekly close above $65,063 would indicate that the current recovery has more substance than the previous intraday reactions.

However, price must also demonstrate acceptance above the level. A temporary move above $65,063 followed by a weekly close back below it would represent another rejection and could attract additional selling.

$66,149 to $66,951: First Supply Cluster

The next resistance zone is located between approximately $66,149 and $66,951.

This is where horizontal resistance overlaps with the descending short-term weekly moving average. It is therefore likely to attract both technical sellers and investors who want to exit positions accumulated during the previous consolidation.

The slope of the moving average remains negative. This tells us that the average market participant represented by that indicator is still experiencing deteriorating conditions.

A recovery above this area would be constructive, but BTC would need to hold it during a subsequent retest. Without that confirmation, the breakout could simply become a liquidity sweep before another rejection.

$68,425: First Structural Invalidation

The $68,425 level is the most important resistance in the immediate structure.

Bitcoin’s previous rebound was rejected close to this area, making it the most recent relevant lower high. A weekly breakout above $68,425 would therefore interrupt the short-term bearish sequence.

This would not automatically confirm a new macro bull market, but it would change the immediate balance of power.

Above $68,425, short sellers who entered during the recent decline could be forced to close positions. At the same time, momentum traders waiting for a structural breakout could begin entering the market. That combination could accelerate price toward the next resistance band.

$71,187 to $73,765: Major Reversal Zone

The region between $71,187 and $73,765 represents the most important medium-term resistance.

This area contains the descending blue moving average, previous horizontal support and several former consolidation levels. It is also the region from which a substantial amount of the previous decline originated.

For our analysis, this is the principal invalidation zone for the bearish weekly thesis.

A single wick above $71,000 would not be sufficient. Bitcoin would need to produce a convincing weekly close above the area, maintain the breakout and ideally convert the former resistance into support.

Until that happens, the broader structure remains bearish-to-neutral.

A confirmed recovery above $73,765 would materially increase the probability of a move toward $81,470.

$81,470: Macro Bullish Confirmation

The $81,470 level represents the next major structural barrier.

Recovering this area would mean that Bitcoin has moved significantly above the entire 2026 consolidation, reclaimed several moving averages and invalidated multiple lower highs.

Only above $81,470 would it become reasonable to discuss a broader return toward $83,934, $86,748, $89,649 and $93,528.

The upper resistance around $100,134 would then become relevant again.

At the moment, however, those targets remain secondary. The market must first resolve the much more immediate battle around $65,000 to $74,000.

🟢 Support Levels

$63,000 to $64,000: Dynamic Long-Term Support

Bitcoin is currently interacting with the rising purple moving average visible on the chart.

Although the exact indicator configuration is less important than price behavior, the line clearly represents a long-term dynamic support that has been rising beneath the market for several months.

This support is currently located close to the $63,000 to $64,000 area.

The fact that price is attempting to stabilize around it is constructive. Long-term moving averages often become areas where investors begin accumulating after a substantial correction.

However, repeated tests weaken support.

Bitcoin has already spent several weeks around this zone. If demand remains insufficient and price continues closing below the moving average, the support could eventually fail.

A clean weekly recovery above $65,000 would reduce this risk. Continued closes beneath $64,000 would increase it.

$62,210: Current Weekly Low

The current candle has reached a low near $62,210.

This level is important for the immediate structure because it represents the point from which buyers reacted during the present week. A return below it would invalidate part of the current rebound and place the $60,072 support under renewed pressure.

Because the weekly candle is still open, the low cannot yet be considered a confirmed swing low.

The market could still revisit it before the weekly close.

$60,072: Critical Structural Support

The $60,072 area is the most important support on the entire chart.

Bitcoin has repeatedly attracted demand close to $60,000, creating the possibility of a large accumulation range or double-bottom formation.

This level also has strong psychological importance. Round numbers attract orders, stop losses, leveraged positions and institutional execution strategies.

A temporary wick below $60,000 would not necessarily confirm a breakdown. Bitcoin frequently moves through obvious support levels to collect liquidity before reversing.

The decisive signal would be a weekly close below $60,072 followed by an unsuccessful attempt to reclaim it.

That sequence would suggest that the current formation is not accumulation but distribution or bearish continuation.

If $60,072 fails, the chart contains relatively limited structural support until the low-$50,000 region.

$50,288: Major Downside Objective

The next major support visible on the weekly chart is near $50,288.

This level corresponds to an earlier consolidation and breakout area. It would therefore be a logical destination if the $60,000 floor collapses.

A decline from $60,000 to $50,288 would represent an additional correction of approximately 16 percent. It would also confirm that the market has moved decisively beneath the long-term dynamic support.

The $50,000 region would probably attract meaningful demand, but it should not be assumed that buyers would immediately create a sustainable reversal.

The reaction would need to be evaluated through weekly volume, candle structure and momentum.

$35,795 to $44,000: Macro Accumulation Area

The green area visible on the chart represents the final major demand zone.

This region extends approximately from the mid-$30,000s into the low-$40,000s. It corresponds to a previous long-term consolidation and would likely become relevant only under a severe macroeconomic or crypto-specific risk-off event.

A decline into this area is not our base case.

However, a professional analysis must identify the level because it represents the next major structural support if $50,000 also fails.

The presence of this zone does not mean Bitcoin is expected to reach it. It means that investors should understand where the chart would likely search for demand under an extreme bearish scenario.

📈 Moving Averages

The moving-average structure remains one of the clearest reasons to maintain a cautious view.

Bitcoin is currently below the cyan moving average near $66,149 and below the blue moving average near $71,187. Both averages are declining, which confirms that short-term and medium-term momentum remain bearish.

When price trades below declining moving averages, rebounds often encounter resistance because the averages represent the deteriorating cost basis of recent market participants.

The current configuration can be summarized as follows:

The short-term average is descending and positioned immediately above price.

The medium-term average is descending more slowly but remains significantly above price.

The long-term purple average is still rising and is being tested as support.

This creates a conflict between different time horizons.

Short-term and medium-term participants remain under pressure. Long-term participants are still defending a broader structural level.

These conflicts frequently produce consolidation rather than immediate directional expansion. Price can move repeatedly above and below the long-term average while the faster moving averages continue descending toward the market.

For bulls, the first improvement would be a recovery above the cyan average around $66,149.

The next improvement would be a breakout above the blue average around $71,187.

The strongest signal would occur if the cyan average stops declining, turns upward and eventually crosses above the blue average while price remains above both.

That process would require time.

For bears, a weekly close beneath the purple long-term average and below $60,072 would represent a significant technical victory. It would indicate that the final major dynamic support has failed while the faster averages continue pressing downward.

At present, the moving averages do not confirm a bull market.

They confirm a bottoming attempt inside a bearish structure.

📊 Market Liquidity

Liquidity is concentrated both immediately above and below the current price.

Above the market, liquidity is likely positioned around $65,063, $66,951 and $68,425. These levels contain short stop losses, breakout orders and potential liquidation points for leveraged bearish positions.

If Bitcoin closes above $65,063 and accelerates through $66,951, the market could move relatively quickly toward $68,425 because short sellers may be forced to reduce exposure.

A breakout above $68,425 could generate a more significant short squeeze toward $71,187.

Below the market, liquidity is concentrated under the current weekly low, under the recent local lows and especially below $60,072.

The $60,000 area is obvious to almost every market participant. This means that stop losses and liquidation orders are likely clustered beneath it.

Bitcoin could therefore temporarily trade below $60,000 without immediately confirming a structural breakdown.

The relevant distinction is between a liquidity sweep and acceptance below support.

A liquidity sweep would involve a rapid move beneath $60,000 followed by an equally rapid recovery and weekly close back above the level.

Acceptance below support would involve a weekly close below $60,000, continued trading beneath the level and a failed attempt to recover it.

The first would be potentially bullish.

The second would expose $50,288.

Volume also requires careful interpretation. Several of the strongest bearish candles were accompanied by increased selling volume, while subsequent rebounds generally showed less participation. This suggests that supply has been more aggressive than demand during the broader decline.

The current weekly volume bar is incomplete because the candle has not yet closed, so it cannot be compared directly with previous completed weeks.

Recent spot Bitcoin ETF flows provide a modestly constructive signal. U.S. products recorded approximately $170.1 million of net inflows on August 3, followed by reported net inflows of about $211.5 million on August 4. This suggests that institutional demand is attempting to return after a volatile period, but two positive sessions are not enough to confirm a durable trend.

For a stronger bullish confirmation, ETF inflows would need to remain positive while Bitcoin breaks above the resistance cluster rather than merely preventing a deeper decline.

📉 Momentum and Oscillator Analysis

The weekly momentum indicators are showing the first credible signs of stabilization, but they remain in bearish territory.

The central oscillator is still positioned below the neutral line. This tells us that negative momentum continues to dominate the broader structure.

However, momentum has not created a proportionally deeper low while price has revisited the lower region of the range. The rising green trendline beneath the oscillator suggests a potential bullish divergence.

A bullish divergence occurs when price produces an equal or lower low while the momentum indicator produces a higher low. It indicates that sellers are still pushing price downward, but their underlying force is weakening.

This does not guarantee an immediate reversal.

Divergences can persist for several weeks or months before price responds. They can also fail completely if a new macroeconomic shock introduces fresh selling pressure.

The green reversal signals visible near the oscillator lows are constructive because they suggest that the market may be moving out of an oversold condition. Nevertheless, the oscillator has not yet recovered above its central threshold.

The MACD provides a similar message.

The blue MACD line has moved marginally above the orange signal line while both remain deeply below zero. The histogram has turned slightly positive, indicating that bearish momentum is decelerating.

This is an early recovery signal.

A bullish crossover below zero often appears during the initial phase of a rebound, but it can also occur during temporary relief rallies inside a larger downtrend.

The signal would become more convincing if:

The positive histogram expands for multiple weeks.

The MACD lines continue rising toward zero.

Bitcoin reclaims $66,951 and $68,425.

Weekly volume increases during bullish candles.

Without price confirmation, the momentum improvement remains only a warning to bears, not a definitive signal for bulls.

The combined message from the indicators is therefore balanced:

Sellers are losing momentum.

Buyers have not yet gained structural control.

🌍 Macroeconomic Context: Why Record Equities Have Not Lifted Bitcoin

The current macroeconomic environment is unusual because several traditional risk assets are performing strongly while Bitcoin remains technically weak.

The S&P 500 and Dow have reached record levels, with recent gains supported by corporate earnings, AI-related companies and optimism that reduced geopolitical tensions could lower oil prices and inflation risk.

At first glance, this should appear favorable for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin is frequently treated as a high-beta liquidity asset. When investors are optimistic, volatility declines and capital moves into growth assets, BTC often benefits.

However, not every equity rally is driven by the type of liquidity expansion that supports crypto.

Equities can rise because corporate profits improve, productivity increases, buybacks remain strong or a small group of dominant companies attracts disproportionate capital. Bitcoin does not generate earnings or cash flow. Its price depends more directly on liquidity, capital flows, monetary expectations and the willingness of investors to hold a volatile non-yielding asset.

This difference is particularly important because U.S. interest rates remain restrictive.

The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds target range at 3.50 to 3.75 percent during its July meeting. More importantly, the decision passed by a 9 to 3 vote, with three officials preferring an additional 25-basis-point rate increase. The Fed also stated that inflation remained elevated relative to its 2 percent objective.

The presence of three dissents in favor of higher rates limits the probability of an immediate and aggressive monetary easing cycle.

This matters for Bitcoin because higher interest rates increase the return available from cash and government securities. Investors require a stronger expected return before accepting the volatility of BTC.

Treasury markets reinforce this message. The U.S. 10-year yield was approximately 4.70 percent on August 3, while the 10-year inflation-adjusted real yield was around 2.43 percent. These are meaningful yields for a low-credit-risk asset and create a substantial opportunity cost for holding Bitcoin.

Inflation is also moving in two different directions.

The June PCE price index declined 0.1 percent month over month, and core PCE increased only 0.1 percent. Those monthly readings were encouraging. However, headline PCE remained 3.7 percent higher than one year earlier and core PCE remained 3.3 percent higher. Inflation is therefore cooling at the margin but remains significantly above the Federal Reserve’s objective.

The economic growth data are equally mixed.

Real GDP expanded at an annualized rate of 1.5 percent during the second quarter, down from 2.1 percent during the first quarter. Yet real final sales to private domestic purchasers increased 3.9 percent, indicating that private demand remained stronger than the headline GDP figure alone suggested.

The July ISM Services PMI reinforced this combination of resilient activity and persistent inflation pressure. The headline index reached 54.1, business activity rose to 59.1 and new orders increased to 57.2. At the same time, the employment component fell into contraction at 47.4 and the prices index accelerated to 70.3.

This is not an ideal macro mix for Bitcoin.

Economic activity remains strong enough to prevent the Fed from cutting rates aggressively, while price pressures remain elevated enough to keep bond yields high. Equities can still rally because earnings and nominal revenues remain robust. Bitcoin, however, may continue to struggle until monetary conditions become more supportive or crypto-specific demand increases materially.

This explains why the S&P 500 reaching record highs should not automatically be interpreted as confirmation that Bitcoin must immediately follow.

The divergence creates two possible interpretations.

The bullish interpretation is that BTC is temporarily lagging and will eventually catch up as risk appetite broadens.

The bearish interpretation is that equity strength is being driven by earnings and sector-specific capital concentration rather than a generalized liquidity expansion.

At the moment, the Bitcoin chart supports the second interpretation slightly more than the first.

BTC is not responding strongly enough to record equity prices. This relative weakness must be respected until the chart proves otherwise by recovering the $68,425 and $71,187 levels.

The next U.S. employment report will be another relevant catalyst. The June unemployment rate was 4.2 percent, while the official July report is scheduled for later this week. A weaker labor report could lower Treasury yields and support Bitcoin, but a strong report combined with persistent service-sector inflation could reinforce expectations that monetary policy will remain restrictive.

🚀 Bullish Scenario

The bullish scenario requires Bitcoin to convert the present momentum divergence into an actual structural breakout.

The first signal would be a weekly close above $65,063.

The second and more important signal would be acceptance above the $66,149 to $66,951 region. Bitcoin should then retest the area and demonstrate that former resistance has become support.

A breakout above $68,425 would confirm that the most recent lower high has been invalidated. This could open a move toward the descending blue moving average near $71,187 and the upper resistance around $73,765.

The decisive bullish confirmation would occur only after BTC closes above the $71,187 to $73,765 cluster.

At that point, the market would have:

Broken the short-term descending channel.

Recovered the faster weekly moving average.

Invalidated the latest lower high.

Reclaimed the medium-term moving average.

Recovered an important former support zone.

That combination could initiate a broader expansion toward $81,470.

Long Entry: A conservative swing entry would require a weekly close above $66,951 followed by a successful retest of approximately $66,000 to $67,000. A more defensive entry would wait for confirmation above $68,425.

Stop Loss: Below $62,000 for the earlier entry, or below the reclaimed $65,000 area after a confirmed breakout and retest. The exact position size must reflect the wide distance required by a weekly chart.

Targets: $68,425, $71,187, $73,765 and $81,470. A confirmed move above $81,470 would expose $83,934, $86,748 and potentially $89,649.

Invalidation: A weekly close below the long-term moving average and especially below $60,072.

Probability: 25 percent

The probability remains limited because BTC has not yet broken any major weekly resistance. Momentum is improving, but price confirmation is still absent.

📉 Bearish Scenario

The bearish scenario begins with another rejection from the $65,063 to $66,951 region.

A failure beneath the descending cyan moving average would indicate that buyers remain unable to overcome even the first resistance cluster.

Bitcoin could then return toward $62,210 and $60,072.

The decisive bearish trigger would be a weekly close below $60,072. The strongest confirmation would occur if BTC subsequently retests $60,000 from below and fails to recover it.

That would transform a major support into resistance.

Under this scenario, the current structure would become a bearish continuation pattern rather than an accumulation range. The positive momentum divergence would be invalidated or delayed, and the long-term purple moving average would lose its role as support.

Short Entry: The most conservative short setup would follow a weekly close below $60,072 and an unsuccessful retest of approximately $60,000 to $61,000. A tactical rejection trade could also develop between $66,951 and $68,425, but it would require clear lower-timeframe confirmation.

Stop Loss: Above approximately $63,000 after a confirmed breakdown and failed retest. For a rejection trade near $68,000, invalidation would occur above the relevant swing high.

Targets: An initial target around $56,000 to $57,000, followed by $50,288. If $50,288 fails, the macro demand zone between approximately $44,000 and $35,795 would become relevant.

Invalidation: A weekly recovery above $66,951 for the breakdown setup, or a confirmed close above $68,425 for the rejection setup.

Probability: 35 percent

The bearish probability remains higher than the bullish probability because price is below the principal moving averages and has not invalidated the lower-high sequence.

However, shorting directly into the $60,000 to $64,000 support region offers an unattractive risk-to-reward profile. Confirmation is essential.

📦 Consolidation and Bottoming Scenario

Our highest-probability scenario is neither an immediate bullish breakout nor an immediate collapse.

It is an extended consolidation between approximately $60,072 and $68,425.

Probability: 40 percent

Bitcoin may continue oscillating around the rising long-term moving average while the faster averages descend toward price. This would allow momentum to recover without requiring an immediate vertical rally.

Such a process could include:

Temporary moves below $60,000 followed by recoveries.

False breakouts above $65,000 or $67,000.

Repeated tests of the long-term moving average.

A gradual contraction in volatility.

Improving MACD momentum without immediate price expansion.

This type of environment is frustrating for directional traders because both bullish and bearish signals can fail.

However, it can be constructive for long-term market structure.

The more time Bitcoin spends defending $60,000 without producing new lows, the more credible the bottoming hypothesis becomes. Conversely, repeated tests without expanding demand would progressively weaken support.

The range should therefore be treated as unresolved.

A weekly breakout above $68,425 would favor the bulls.

A weekly breakdown below $60,072 would favor the bears.

Everything between those levels remains part of the bottom-searching process.

📌 Best Strategy: Wait for Confirmation

The current chart does not reward aggressive anticipation.

Bitcoin is positioned between a major long-term support and several descending resistance levels. Entering a large long position before a breakout means trading directly against the weekly trend. Entering a large short position near $60,000 means selling into a major demand zone and a possible bullish divergence.

Neither offers an optimal asymmetric setup.

The more professional strategy is to wait for one of two clear confirmations.

The bullish confirmation is a weekly recovery above $66,951, followed by a breakout above $68,425.

The bearish confirmation is a weekly close below $60,072, followed by a failed attempt to reclaim it.

Until one of these events occurs, the market is likely to remain volatile and indecisive.

Investors and traders should also separate strategic accumulation from tactical trading.

A long-term investor may decide that the $60,000 to $64,000 region offers an acceptable valuation for gradual accumulation. That is a portfolio decision based on a multi-year horizon.

A swing trader requires a clear entry, stop loss and target. The trader cannot simply hold through every possible bearish scenario because the position must be managed according to defined risk.

Using the weekly chart also requires wider stops and smaller position sizes. A stop that is too close to the entry will probably be triggered by normal weekly volatility.

Leverage should therefore be approached with extreme caution.

The objective is not to predict every candle.

The objective is to wait until the market reveals whether $60,000 represents accumulation or merely temporary support.

🧐 What to Watch in the Coming Days?

The first element to monitor is the weekly close relative to $65,063.

A close above the level would confirm that buyers have regained the immediate pivot. A close below it would leave the current candle as a weak recovery inside the descending structure.

The second element is price behavior around $66,149 to $66,951.

This is the first meaningful resistance cluster. A breakout without volume or without subsequent acceptance would remain vulnerable to reversal.

The third element is $68,425.

This is the level that would invalidate the most recent lower high. It is significantly more important than a temporary recovery above $65,000.

The fourth element is the weekly MACD.

The current bullish crossover is encouraging, but the histogram must continue expanding. If the histogram returns negative while price remains beneath resistance, the recovery signal will have failed.

The fifth element is the momentum divergence.

The oscillator should begin moving toward neutral territory. Another deep decline in momentum would weaken the bottoming thesis.

The sixth element is the reaction of Bitcoin to traditional markets.

If the S&P 500 remains at record highs and BTC continues failing below $66,000, the relative weakness becomes more concerning.

If Bitcoin begins outperforming during stable or rising equity markets, it could indicate that capital is finally rotating toward digital assets.

The seventh element is Treasury yields.

A sustained decline in nominal and real yields would reduce the opportunity cost of holding BTC. A renewed rise in yields would make the macro environment more restrictive.

The eighth element is institutional demand through spot ETFs.

Positive flows must persist for more than a few sessions and ideally accompany a technical breakout. Inflows that merely prevent Bitcoin from breaking $60,000 are supportive, but they do not establish a new trend.

Finally, the market must monitor the $60,072 support.

Everything above that level can still be interpreted as a prolonged bottoming process.

A confirmed weekly breakdown beneath it would force a complete reassessment.

🔭 Our Vision

Our view remains cautious and structurally disciplined.

Bitcoin is not currently in a confirmed weekly bull trend.

The market continues to trade below the main short-term and medium-term moving averages. The lower-high sequence has not been invalidated. The immediate resistance cluster between $65,063 and $68,425 remains intact, and the major trend reversal zone between $71,187 and $73,765 is still significantly above price.

At the same time, the bearish thesis is no longer uncontested.

Bitcoin is defending a rising long-term moving average. The $60,000 region has generated repeated demand. Weekly momentum is producing a potential bullish divergence, and the MACD histogram has moved marginally positive.

These signals suggest that the market may be approaching the mature phase of the correction.

But approaching the mature phase is not the same as completing it.

Our base case is that Bitcoin continues searching for a bottom inside the $60,000 to $68,400 range. The market may produce sharp rebounds, sudden liquidity sweeps and repeated false signals before selecting its next major direction.

The record highs in the S&P 500 do not change this conclusion.

They demonstrate that risk appetite exists, but they do not prove that the liquidity is broad enough to support Bitcoin. The equity rally is benefiting from earnings, productivity expectations and AI-related capital expenditure, while BTC continues facing high real yields, restrictive monetary policy and an incomplete recovery in crypto-specific demand.

This divergence can eventually resolve through a Bitcoin catch-up rally.

However, the chart must confirm that outcome.

A weekly close above $68,425 would be the first meaningful improvement.

A sustained recovery above $71,187 to $73,765 would invalidate the dominant bearish structure.

A breakout above $81,470 would confirm that the market has transitioned from bottoming into a broader bullish recovery.

Until those events occur, we do not consider new all-time highs to be the primary scenario.

Our probability distribution is:

40 percent: Continued consolidation and bottom formation between $60,072 and $68,425.

35 percent: Breakdown below $60,072 and extension toward $50,288.

25 percent: Bullish breakout above $68,425, followed by recovery toward $71,187, $73,765 and potentially $81,470.

The most probable path is therefore not a straight line.

It is a volatile process of accumulation, testing and confirmation.

Bitcoin is showing signs of seller exhaustion, but buyers have not yet demonstrated control.

The market is still searching for a bottom.

📜 Disclaimer

This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile. Every position should be based on independent research, an appropriate time horizon and strict risk management.

Source of the Chart: TradingView