Bitcoin supply in profit has returned close to the 60% threshold after collapsing below 50% at the end of June, but the improvement does not yet prove that Bitcoin has completed its 2026 bear-market reset.

The percentage of BTC held above its estimated on-chain acquisition price climbed from 46.2% on June 30 to 57.5% on July 22. Bitcoin was trading near $65,000 on July 24, meaning that the latest price recovery has moved a substantial part of the network back into unrealized profit.

That is an important change.

It suggests that the market has moved away from the extreme pressure visible in late June, when more than half of the circulating supply was held at an unrealized loss. It also indicates that Bitcoin may be entering a broader stabilization phase after the heavy correction from its 2025 all-time high.

However, Bitcoin supply in profit cannot be interpreted in isolation.

Long-term holders are still moving coins at an aggregate loss, spot-market demand remains inconsistent and the present recovery has already shown some characteristics of a leverage-led rebound rather than a fully supported accumulation cycle.

More importantly, the same combination of on-chain indicators produced a false recovery between late April and early June. During that period, Bitcoin supply in profit reached approximately 67%, while the 30-day average of long-term holder SOPR remained above its breakeven level for 35 days.

Both signals later reversed.

The market therefore faces a familiar problem. Profitability is improving, but the improvement has not yet demonstrated durability.

The real question is not whether Bitcoin can rebound. It is whether Bitcoin supply in profit can remain elevated while long-term holders stop realizing losses and genuine spot demand returns.

Until those conditions are visible simultaneously, the current move should be treated as a developing recovery rather than confirmation of a new bull market.

What Bitcoin Supply in Profit Actually Measures

Bitcoin supply in profit estimates the amount or percentage of circulating BTC whose current market price is higher than the price recorded when those coins last moved on-chain.

Every Bitcoin unspent transaction output, commonly known as a UTXO, contains information about when it was created. Analysts can compare the market price at that moment with the current price.

When the present Bitcoin price is higher than the estimated acquisition price of a coin, that coin is classified as being in profit.

When the present price is lower, it is classified as being in loss.

Glassnode explains that the indicator is binary. Bitcoin supply in profit tells us whether a coin is above or below its cost basis, but it does not measure the magnitude of that profit. A coin that is 1% above its acquisition price and a coin that is 1,000% above its acquisition price are both counted as profitable supply.

This limitation is important.

Bitcoin supply in profit measures the breadth of profitability across the network, not the total amount of unrealized wealth.

A reading of 60% means that roughly six out of every ten units of analyzed supply are above their estimated cost basis. It does not mean that investors have collectively earned a 60% return.

The indicator is valuable because investor behaviour often changes around cost basis.

Holders who return to breakeven after months of losses may sell because they are relieved to exit without suffering a major loss. Other investors may become more confident as the percentage of profitable supply expands.

A rising Bitcoin supply in profit can therefore have two opposite consequences.

It can reduce financial stress and support confidence.

It can also reactivate dormant selling pressure from investors waiting for price to return to their entry point.

This is why the direction of the metric matters, but its interaction with spending behaviour matters even more.

Why the Move From 46.2% to 57.5% Matters

The increase in Bitcoin supply in profit from 46.2% to 57.5% represents a rise of more than eleven percentage points in less than one month.

That is not a minor movement.

It means that the rebound from the late-June lows pushed a meaningful block of recently acquired supply back above its cost basis.

When Bitcoin supply in profit dropped below 50%, the market entered a condition in which the majority of coins were either at breakeven or underwater according to the metric’s methodology.

Such environments often appear during deep corrections, bear markets or the final stages of a broader capitulation process.

A market with less than half of its supply in profit is psychologically different from one in which 80% or 90% of supply is profitable.

During highly profitable phases, holders generally have a larger financial cushion. Corrections can be absorbed without immediately forcing the average participant into loss.

When profitability falls toward 50%, that cushion becomes thin. Small downward movements can push millions of coins beneath their acquisition price.

This creates a more fragile investor base.

The recovery toward 57.5% therefore reduces some of that fragility. It provides evidence that the market has responded to the June stress rather than continuing directly into uncontrolled capitulation.

Bitcoin supply in profit approaching 60% also supports the idea that a preliminary bottom may already have been established around the recent lows.

Preliminary, however, is the critical word.

The market has improved enough to weaken the most aggressively bearish interpretation, but not enough to eliminate the possibility of another breakdown.

Bitcoin Supply in Profit Is Still Below the Confirmation Zone

According to the framework presented by CryptoQuant contributor thechessONCHAIN, previous bear-market recoveries became more credible when Bitcoin supply in profit moved above approximately 64% while the 30-day simple moving average of long-term holder SOPR remained above 1 for an extended period.

The current Bitcoin supply in profit reading of 57.5% remains below that proposed confirmation threshold.

The difference between 57.5% and 64% may appear small, but it represents a large quantity of BTC whose cost basis remains above the present market price.

A move through 64% would indicate that a broader section of the network had returned to profitability. Holding that level would suggest that the recovery was not merely caused by a short-lived price spike.

The requirement to hold the level is crucial.

Bitcoin supply in profit is sensitive to price movements. A strong rally can rapidly move coins into profit, while a fast correction can push them back into loss.

The indicator can therefore generate temporary improvements during bear-market rallies.

A durable recovery requires more than touching a threshold.

The market must remain above it long enough for investor behaviour, demand and capital positioning to adapt.

This is precisely where the earlier 2026 recovery failed.

The April–June False Breakout Is the Main Warning

Between April 28 and June 1, the 30-day average of long-term holder SOPR remained above 1 for 35 consecutive days.

At the same time, Bitcoin supply in profit reached approximately 67%.

Those conditions appeared to satisfy the basic requirements for a stronger recovery.

The market seemed to be moving from a loss-dominated environment into a more constructive profitability regime.

The signal did not survive.

Bitcoin supply in profit rolled over, long-term holder SOPR fell back below 1 and Bitcoin eventually moved toward new 2026 lows.

CryptoQuant’s analysis therefore treats the April–June period as a failed attempt rather than a confirmed transition. The current 30-day average of long-term holder SOPR has subsequently remained below 1 for more than 50 days.

That failed breakout changes how the latest data should be interpreted.

Without the earlier reversal, investors might view the rebound toward 60% as the first major signal that the bear market was ending.

Because a similar signal already failed, the burden of proof is now higher.

The market must demonstrate that the latest increase in Bitcoin supply in profit is supported by stronger demand and more stable holder behaviour.

A second move toward the mid-60% region followed by another breakdown would reinforce the idea that Bitcoin remains inside a broad distribution or bottom-building phase.

It could also create greater psychological damage because investors who bought the second recovery would once again be trapped at higher prices.

Long-Term Holder SOPR Is the Missing Confirmation

Bitcoin supply in profit shows the unrealized condition of the network.

Spent output profit ratio, or SOPR, shows what happens when coins actually move.

SOPR compares the value of coins when they are spent with the value recorded when they were created. A value above 1 indicates that the coins being moved are, in aggregate, realizing a profit.

A value below 1 indicates that coins are being moved at a loss.

Long-term holder SOPR applies this logic to older coins. Depending on the data provider and methodology, long-term holders are generally identified through an age threshold of approximately five to six months.

Glassnode, for example, uses outputs older than 155 days. CryptoQuant analysis cited in the original market discussion refers more broadly to coins dormant for at least six months. The exact classification can vary, but the purpose remains the same: measuring the profitability of spending by holders who have owned Bitcoin for a relatively long period.

Long-term holder SOPR is particularly useful because old coins do not move frequently.

When they begin moving at significant profits, the activity may indicate distribution from experienced holders.

When they move at losses, it may indicate capitulation, portfolio restructuring, collateral pressure or transfers by investors who bought near previous cycle highs.

A long-term holder SOPR below 1 does not prove that every old coin is being sold on an exchange.

Coins can move between wallets, custodians and financial products without representing immediate market selling.

Nevertheless, a sustained reading below 1 shows that old supply is being transferred at prices below its estimated cost basis.

CryptoQuant reported in late June that the 30-day average of long-term holder SOPR stood around 0.88 and had spent a large part of 2026 below the breakeven line.

The platform noted that prolonged periods below 1 have historically been associated with bear markets and major reset phases rather than established bull-market conditions.

This is why Bitcoin supply in profit approaching 60% is not sufficient.

The recovery becomes much stronger if long-term holder SOPR rises above 1 and remains there.

That would show that the broader market is returning to profit while old coins are also moving without persistent loss realization.

A Recovery in Price Is Not Automatically a Recovery in Structure

Bitcoin traded around $64,962 on July 24, after recovering from levels below $60,000 earlier in July.

The price recovery mechanically increased Bitcoin supply in profit.

However, price and market structure are not identical.

A market can rise because long-term capital is accumulating spot Bitcoin.

It can also rise because traders are opening leveraged long positions in derivatives markets.

Both can produce higher prices, but the second structure is generally more fragile.

CryptoQuant observed that the rebound from approximately $58,500 to above $63,500 in early July was accompanied by a sharp increase in Binance funding rates while the Coinbase Premium Index remained negative.

A positive and rapidly increasing funding rate can indicate aggressive leveraged demand.

A negative Coinbase premium suggests that Bitcoin was trading at a lower price on Coinbase than on certain offshore markets, a condition often interpreted as weaker demand from U.S. spot investors.

CryptoQuant concluded that the divergence suggested offshore leverage was driving a larger portion of the recovery than organic U.S. spot accumulation.

This does not mean the rebound must fail.

It means Bitcoin supply in profit is being lifted by a market whose demand foundation remains uneven.

If leveraged traders continue pushing price higher while spot buyers remain passive, the market may become vulnerable to liquidations.

A relatively small decline can force leveraged positions to close, creating additional selling pressure and reversing the improvement in profitability.

For the latest recovery to become structurally stronger, spot volume should expand alongside price.

Spot Demand Remains the Central Problem

One of the most consistent warnings across recent on-chain analysis is the absence of decisive spot demand.

CryptoQuant reported that spot exchange volume had been declining during the July rebound.

The platform argued that healthier bullish reversals generally begin with spot buyers, while derivatives amplify the movement later.

When derivatives lead and spot activity remains weak, the recovery can become dependent on leverage rather than capital committed through direct asset purchases.

This distinction matters enormously for Bitcoin supply in profit.

A leverage-driven rally can rapidly push the indicator higher without creating a durable holder base.

Traders using futures or perpetual contracts do not necessarily remove BTC from the liquid market. Their positions can disappear quickly when funding becomes expensive or price moves against them.

Spot accumulation is different.

When investors purchase actual Bitcoin and move it into custody, the transaction can reduce available liquid supply and establish a new cost basis.

If those buyers have a long-term horizon, they may provide stronger support during future corrections.

The ideal confirmation would therefore involve three developments occurring together:

Bitcoin supply in profit moves and remains above the mid-60% region.

Long-term holder SOPR holds above 1.

Spot demand and trading volume expand without excessive funding rates.

At present, the first condition is incomplete and the other two remain uncertain.

ETF Flows Show Institutional Demand Is Returning, but Not Consistently

Institutional demand provides a more constructive counterweight to the weak spot-market picture.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded positive net flows on several trading days between July 14 and July 22.

Farside Investors reported approximately $181.1 million of net inflows on July 14, $107.7 million on July 15, $79.1 million on July 16, $132.3 million on July 17, $226.8 million on July 20, $203.2 million on July 21 and $69.1 million on July 22.

However, the trend reversed sharply on July 23, when the products recorded approximately $225.1 million in net outflows.

The sequence demonstrates both institutional interest and continuing uncertainty.

ETF investors are willing to add exposure near the current range, but the flows have not yet become unidirectional.

CoinShares described a similar shift in global digital-asset investment products.

The firm reported that the market had experienced eight consecutive weeks of outflows totalling approximately $8 billion before returning to modest inflows in July.

CoinShares connected the improvement to softer U.S. inflation data and changing interest-rate expectations, while still warning that substantial upside could remain limited without a more decisive change in monetary policy.

ETF inflows can help lift Bitcoin supply in profit by absorbing available supply and supporting price.

But inconsistent flows can also amplify volatility.

Institutional allocation is now an essential part of Bitcoin’s market structure, yet it has not eliminated cyclical risk.

Bitcoin Supply in Profit and the New Institutional Cost Basis

The 2026 Bitcoin market differs from earlier cycles because a larger amount of capital entered through ETFs, corporate treasuries and institutional custody structures at elevated prices.

This may explain why profitability metrics appear compressed even though Bitcoin remains far above the nominal prices seen during previous bear markets.

CryptoQuant analysis placed Bitcoin’s net unrealized profit near 0.358 on July 18, with BTC around $64,791.

The contributor argued that this reading was closer to historically depressed profitability zones than to the elevated levels normally associated with strong mid-cycle conditions.

The implication is that the aggregate cost basis of the market has risen.

A substantial amount of Bitcoin changed hands during the 2024–2025 institutional expansion. Many of those buyers may have entered at prices significantly above the current market.

Bitcoin supply in profit can therefore remain relatively low even when BTC trades near $65,000.

This is not necessarily a sign of structural failure.

It may reflect the maturation of the asset and the formation of a much higher network cost basis.

However, a higher cost basis also creates a dense layer of potential resistance.

As price returns toward the levels where recent investors purchased, some may reduce exposure at breakeven.

The market must absorb that supply before Bitcoin supply in profit can expand sustainably.

Why Recoveries Often Fail Near Breakeven

Bear-market rallies frequently encounter resistance when a large amount of supply returns to its acquisition price.

Consider an investor who bought Bitcoin at $70,000 and then watched the price fall below $60,000.

During the decline, the investor may decide not to sell because realizing the loss feels unacceptable.

When Bitcoin later returns toward $70,000, the same investor may sell immediately to recover the original capital.

This creates what is sometimes called overhead supply.

The market is not only fighting traders who believe the price is too high. It is also fighting investors who have spent weeks or months waiting to exit without a loss.

Bitcoin supply in profit helps identify how much of the network is escaping that underwater condition.

As the percentage rises, financial pressure declines, but potential breakeven selling can increase.

A sustainable bull market must absorb this supply without losing momentum.

That requires consistent demand.

If demand is weak, the movement toward 60% or 64% profitability can stall and reverse.

If demand is strong, previously trapped supply can transfer to buyers with a lower cost basis and a longer investment horizon.

The difference between those outcomes will determine whether the current rebound becomes a real market transition.

The Role of Whales and Older Supply

Whale behaviour adds another layer of uncertainty.

CryptoQuant reported that wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC were distributing heavily in July.

The cohort recorded approximately 67,000 BTC of net distribution around July 13, representing its strongest selling activity since February.

At the same time, exchange inflows did not increase proportionally, suggesting that the movement could include custody changes, over-the-counter activity or transfers not intended for immediate exchange selling.

A separate CryptoQuant analysis found that larger wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC remained net accumulators in early July, although their buying momentum had slowed.

This created a mixed signal in which medium-sized whales were distributing while larger entities were still accumulating, but less aggressively than before.

The behaviour is consistent with a transitional market.

Different cohorts are responding to the same price range in different ways.

Some investors view $60,000–$65,000 as an opportunity.

Others see the recovery as a chance to reduce risk.

Bitcoin supply in profit will become more convincing when accumulation broadens and the market absorbs distribution without depending on excessive leverage.

Miners Can Add Pressure During a Fragile Recovery

Miner behaviour must also be considered.

Bitcoin miners receive newly issued BTC and transaction fees, but they face operating expenses denominated largely in fiat currencies.

When margins compress, miners may sell reserves to fund electricity, equipment, debt and infrastructure costs.

CryptoQuant observed a major increase in average miner outflows in early July alongside movements of older coins toward exchanges.

The same analysis noted that stablecoin inflows were weak while derivatives traders continued opening long positions.

This combination can be dangerous.

Miners and seasoned holders may provide real spot supply.

Leveraged traders may provide temporary synthetic demand.

If the synthetic demand disappears during a correction, the market can lose the buyer needed to absorb the real coins entering circulation.

Bitcoin supply in profit could then decline rapidly, especially because many recently acquired coins remain close to their cost basis.

The market does not need enormous selling pressure to reverse when the profitability cushion is thin.

The Macro Environment Still Controls the Speed of Recovery

Bitcoin’s on-chain structure cannot be separated from the macroeconomic environment.

The July rebound accelerated after softer U.S. inflation readings reduced expectations for additional monetary tightening.

CoinShares reported that softer CPI and producer-price data encouraged renewed inflows and a partial repricing of interest-rate expectations.

Lower expected rates can support Bitcoin through several channels.

They may weaken the relative attraction of cash and short-duration government securities.

They can improve global liquidity expectations.

They may reduce the discount rate applied to risk assets.

They can also encourage portfolio managers to increase exposure to assets with higher volatility and long-term growth potential.

However, the macro signal remains unstable.

Energy prices and geopolitical risk could push inflation higher again. Block2Learn examined this risk in its analysis of Brent crude above $90 and the potential return of an inflation shock.

If energy costs remain elevated, central banks may have less room to ease policy.

That would reduce one of the most important catalysts supporting the present Bitcoin recovery.

Bitcoin supply in profit may therefore depend not only on on-chain behaviour but also on inflation, monetary policy, bond yields and global liquidity.

Bottom Formation Is a Process, Not a Single Data Point

Markets rarely move directly from capitulation into a new bull trend.

A durable Bitcoin bottom often develops through several stages.

Capitulation

During capitulation, price falls rapidly, profitability collapses and weaker holders exit.

Bitcoin supply in profit may fall below 50%, while realized losses rise and sentiment becomes extremely negative.

The June decline showed several characteristics of this phase.

Stabilization

During stabilization, price stops making aggressive new lows and begins moving within a broad range.

Volatility may remain high, but sellers gradually lose control.

Bitcoin supply in profit rebounds as price recovers, although long-term holder metrics may remain weak.

The July market appears closer to this stage.

Reaccumulation

During reaccumulation, stronger buyers absorb supply from investors exiting near breakeven.

Spot volume improves, leverage becomes less dominant and exchange balances may decline.

Bitcoin supply in profit remains above key thresholds even during corrections.

Confirmation

Confirmation occurs when the market establishes higher lows, reclaims major resistance and preserves profitability through periods of volatility.

Long-term holder SOPR remains above 1, ETF or spot demand becomes more consistent and price advances without requiring unsustainable funding rates.

Bitcoin has not yet clearly reached this final stage.

Block2Learn’s View: The Bottom May Still Develop Between September and November

Our broader Block2Learn view remains that the 2026 Bitcoin bottom is more likely to be a process than a single event.

The June low may ultimately remain the absolute price low.

However, the market may still need several months of consolidation, retesting and redistribution before establishing a durable cyclical base.

For this reason, the September–November 2026 window remains important in our scenario framework.

This does not mean Bitcoin must collapse to dramatically lower levels during that period.

A bottom can form through time as well as price.

Bitcoin could spend months moving within a broad range while profitability metrics recover, leverage resets and institutional demand absorbs underwater supply.

A successful retest near or above the June low could be more constructive than a rapid vertical rally.

It would allow the market to prove that sellers are becoming exhausted and that buyers are willing to defend the range.

Bitcoin supply in profit approaching 60% is consistent with an early recovery, but the failed April–June signal warns against assuming that the process is complete.

The current market should therefore be viewed as a bottom-building environment with improving conditions, not as an unquestionable return to the bull market.

The Main Price Zone Above the Market

Bitcoin’s immediate technical challenge is the area between approximately $66,000 and $72,200.

Block2Learn recently examined this range in its analysis of Bitcoin’s attempt to break through $66,000 and test the $72,200 liquidity zone.

A sustained move through this area could push Bitcoin supply in profit beyond the 64% confirmation threshold.

It would also force a larger group of short-term holders back into profit.

However, the same zone may contain significant overhead supply from investors who accumulated during earlier recovery attempts.

The market must therefore distinguish between a temporary liquidity sweep and a genuine breakout.

A short movement above resistance followed by immediate rejection would resemble the earlier false recovery.

A weekly close above the zone, followed by a successful retest and stable spot demand, would provide much stronger evidence of a structural transition.

Bullish Scenario: Profitability Becomes Durable

In the bullish scenario, Bitcoin supply in profit rises above 64% and remains there during subsequent corrections.

The 30-day average of long-term holder SOPR moves above 1 and establishes the level as support.

Spot exchange volume increases, the Coinbase premium becomes neutral or positive and funding rates remain controlled.

ETF flows become consistently positive rather than alternating between inflows and sharp outflows.

Bitcoin breaks through the $66,000–$72,200 region and forms a higher low above former resistance.

Under these conditions, the June decline would increasingly resemble a completed capitulation event.

The market could then begin targeting higher areas, although a return toward the 2025 peak would still require stronger liquidity and macro support.

The most important element would not be the speed of the rally.

It would be the ability of Bitcoin supply in profit and long-term holder SOPR to remain constructive during normal corrections.

Base Scenario: A Long Accumulation Range

The base scenario is a prolonged consolidation between the recent lows and the low-$70,000 region.

Bitcoin supply in profit fluctuates between approximately 50% and 65%.

Long-term holder SOPR occasionally moves above 1 but fails to establish a decisive trend.

ETF flows remain mixed, spot demand improves gradually and derivatives continue to generate short-term volatility.

In this scenario, Bitcoin may repeatedly approach resistance without immediately beginning a new bull market.

The market would use time to transfer supply from investors who bought near the 2025 peak to investors accumulating during the 2026 correction.

This outcome would align with the Block2Learn expectation of a broader bottoming process extending toward September–November.

It may frustrate traders looking for immediate momentum, but it could create a stronger foundation for the next major cycle.

Bearish Scenario: A Second False Recovery

The bearish scenario begins if Bitcoin supply in profit rises toward the mid-60% region but fails to remain there.

Long-term holder SOPR stays below 1.

Spot volume continues declining while funding rates and open interest increase.

ETF flows weaken and the Coinbase premium remains negative.

Bitcoin fails to break the major overhead resistance and falls back below the range that supported the July recovery.

Under these conditions, the market could retest the June low.

A decisive break below that level would place more recently acquired supply underwater and could trigger another wave of capitulation.

The bearish outcome does not require a structural failure of Bitcoin.

It would represent a deeper reset of the cost basis after a failed recovery.

The warning from the April–June period is that Bitcoin supply in profit can briefly enter a seemingly bullish range before rolling over.

Investors should therefore require confirmation rather than relying on the first threshold crossing.

How Long-Term Investors Can Interpret the Signal

For a long-term investor, Bitcoin supply in profit is better used as a market-regime indicator than as a precise entry signal.

A low reading indicates widespread stress and reduced speculative excess.

It may identify attractive accumulation environments, but it does not guarantee that price has reached its final low.

The current zone suggests that Bitcoin is no longer in the same extreme condition visible at the end of June.

At the same time, it does not show the broad profitability normally associated with a mature bull market.

Long-term investors can interpret this as a transitional environment.

Rather than attempting to identify the exact bottom, they may focus on position sizing, liquidity reserves and gradual accumulation.

The risk of further volatility remains high because a large percentage of supply is still close to breakeven.

How Traders Can Interpret the Signal

For traders, Bitcoin supply in profit should be combined with price structure and demand metrics.

A move above 64% becomes more meaningful if it occurs alongside:

Rising spot volume.

Positive or neutral Coinbase premium.

Moderate funding rates.

Declining liquidation risk.

Higher lows on the daily and weekly charts.

Sustained ETF inflows.

Without those confirmations, a profitability breakout may simply reflect another temporary rally.

Traders should also avoid treating the 60% level as an automatic buy signal.

The previous false breakout demonstrated that even 67% Bitcoin supply in profit can reverse when demand is not strong enough.

The Metrics That Matter From Here

The most important metric remains Bitcoin supply in profit itself.

The market should ideally reclaim the 64% region and remain above it.

Long-term holder SOPR should move above 1 and hold the level for several weeks.

Spot volume should increase rather than allowing derivatives to dominate price discovery.

The Coinbase Premium Index should improve, indicating stronger U.S. demand.

ETF flows should become consistently positive.

Funding rates should remain controlled.

MVRV and NUPL should rise gradually without immediately entering overheated conditions.

Price should reclaim resistance and establish higher lows.

No single indicator can confirm the market transition.

The strongest signal will come from convergence across profitability, spending behaviour, demand, liquidity and price structure.

Where This Fits in the Block2Learn Learning Path

This analysis connects directly to several areas of the Block2Learn Learning Path.

At the Foundation level, Bitcoin supply in profit helps investors understand how blockchain data can estimate the cost basis of a decentralized network.

Inside the Investment Operating System, the metric demonstrates why investment decisions should be based on multiple confirming signals rather than a single bullish chart.

Within the Trading layer, the relationship between profitability, resistance, funding rates and spot volume provides a framework for distinguishing a sustainable breakout from a leveraged liquidity move.

In the Crypto layer, SOPR, MVRV, NUPL and supply profitability show how UTXO data can be transformed into indicators of investor behaviour.

At the Wealth Strategy level, the current market illustrates the importance of gradual allocation, liquidity management and avoiding excessive exposure during an unconfirmed cycle transition.

The central lesson is that improving conditions are not the same as completed conditions.

Final Outlook: Bitcoin Is Healing, but the Market Has Not Yet Proved Its Recovery

Bitcoin supply in profit approaching 60% is a constructive development.

The recovery from 46.2% to 57.5% shows that the late-June stress has eased and that Bitcoin has moved away from a condition in which the majority of supply was underwater.

However, the indicator remains below the proposed 64% confirmation threshold.

Long-term holder SOPR remains weak.

Spot demand has not yet become decisive.

ETF flows have improved but remain volatile.

Derivatives continue to play a major role in short-term price movements.

The failed April–June recovery provides a direct warning against premature conclusions.

Bitcoin supply in profit previously reached 67%, and long-term holder SOPR remained above 1 for more than one month, yet both indicators eventually reversed.

The current rebound must therefore prove that it can survive resistance, profit-taking and normal market volatility.

Our view is that Bitcoin may be entering the early stages of a bottoming process, but the structure is not yet sufficiently mature to declare the beginning of a new bull market.

The June low may hold.

The market may also require further retests or months of consolidation into the September–November period.

The difference between those scenarios will depend on demand.

If spot buyers return, ETF allocation remains positive and long-term holders stop realizing persistent losses, Bitcoin supply in profit can become a genuine recovery signal.

If leverage remains dominant and spot demand fails to absorb overhead supply, the metric may roll over for a second time.

The market is improving.

It has not yet completed the test.

This article is provided for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, legal or tax advice. Bitcoin and other digital assets involve significant volatility, liquidity, regulatory and technological risks. Always conduct independent research and evaluate your personal financial situation before making investment decisions.