B2L Market Focus: Why 5% Treasury Yields Reprice the Economy Before the Fed Decides
Near 5% Treasury yields reset the reference point for mortgages, corporate hurdle rates, valuations and fiscal financing before the Fed decides.
The Productivity Hinge: Can AI Outrun America’s Labor Slowdown?
AI can lift output, but it cannot by itself erase America’s labor supply constraint. This Research maps the productivity, wages, capital and market implications.
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Energy Cost Pass-Through: Why Inflation’s Second Round Hits Margins
Energy costs are moving from fuel into freight, inventories and margins. The decisive question is whether that pressure broadens into persistent inflation.
B2L Market Focus: Europe’s Energy-Price Squeeze Is Meeting Weak Demand
Europe’s latest producer-price surge was led by energy while retail and services softened. The key question is whether firms can absorb the shock—or pass it into inflation, credit and the euro.
The Treasury Repo Market Is Becoming the New Liquidity Hinge
Central clearing, dealer balance sheets and 24-hour collateral demand are reshaping the Treasury repo market’s role in U.S. liquidity.
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B2L Market Focus: Treasury Clearing and Repo Capacity Are Rewiring Market Risk — Certification Edition
U.S. Treasury central clearing is approaching as hedge-fund basis trades and repo borrowing remain historically elevated. This Market Focus explains why the reform can reduce bilateral risk while making margin liquidity, dealer capacity and clearing access more important across bonds, equities, the dollar and crypto.
The Stablecoin Growth Paradox
Stablecoin growth can deepen demand for Treasury bills while transforming bank deposits into concentrated institutional funding. The opportunity is real—and so is the run risk.
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Figure Kiavi Deal: Why Tokenized Credit Still Needs Real Liquidity
Figure’s acquisition of Kiavi connects a $7.8 billion residential-loan originator to blockchain rails, testing whether faster credit markets can preserve underwriting, funding discipline and real liquidity.
Treasury Yield Caps: Why Pressure Can Shift to Dollar and Gold
Support for long-dated Treasuries can stabilise bonds while transferring fiscal and credibility pressure to the dollar and gold.
Warsh Speech Lifts Yields: What the Market Repriced
Warsh’s inflation message lifted short-term Treasury yields and pressured technology stocks, resetting the market’s duration assumptions.
